Topic: Sustainability

What percentage of Europe’s new light vehicle market will electric vehicles (EVs) account for this year? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus and special content editor Phil Curry discuss EV Volumes’ forecast in the Automotive Update podcast.

This episode unpacks the latest update from EV Volumes’ forecasting team. Listen now for key insights into new EV sales in Europe, alongside projections for the region’s big five markets. Which factors could most affect sales of electric models in the future?

Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music.

Growth forecast for Europe

The light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), increased by a modest 0.9% in Europe during 2025. However, several factors have recently affected forecasts for the years ahead.

EV Volumes forecasts that light-vehicle sales in Western and Central Europe will grow by 2.6% year on year in 2026. This is higher than in its March 2026 forecast, which projected a 0.1% increase.

Yet at 15.5 million units, this is far below the 18 million light vehicles registered in 2019. Moreover, it is not expected that volumes will return to that level within the current forecast horizon to 2040.

Light-vehicle sales are then projected to increase in 2027. However, this hinges on a complex interplay of regulatory and economic factors. Additionally, slight dips in demand are expected in 2030 and 2035. This will come as demand is pulled forward into 2029 and 2034, triggered by stricter EU emissions targets.

Policy push for EVs in Europe

A number of new policies have been proposed or passed in recent months, which could impact European light-vehicle markets. These may apply especially to EVs, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

In February 2026, the EU Commission approved the new End‑of‑Life Vehicles Regulation (ELVR). This requires manufacturers to use more recyclable or reusable materials in new cars and vans.

Work also continues on European-first regulation. This could allow only EVs manufactured in Europe, consisting of at least 70% locally-sourced components, to qualify for subsidies and public procurement.

Meeting emissions targets and circularity requirements will require a major increase in EV sales, according to EV Volumes’ forecasting team. This could trigger competitive pricing cuts, supported by lower lithium costs. Carmakers may also restrict the supply of internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

Impact of the Automotive package

On 16 December 2025, the European Commission unveiled its Automotive Package. This introduced a revised CO₂ reduction pathway and compliance mechanisms for the 2030 to 2035 period.

If passed, from 2035, carmakers will need to cut tailpipe CO₂ emissions of passenger vehicles by 90% against 2021 levels. This is instead of the original 100% planned cut. The remaining 10% could be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels, or biofuels.

This means PHEVs, extended-range electric vehicles, hybrids, and even traditional ICE models, could be bought new beyond 2035. This would be alongside BEVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.

The package also suggests greater flexibility for the 2030 target. Manufacturers would have a three-year compliance period between 2030 and 2032 to achieve the 55% reduction compared to 2021.

Additional proposed measures include updated labelling rules covering EV range and energy consumption. There may also be ‘super credits’ for small, affordable EVs produced in the EU. Additionally, a €1.8 billion battery support package is proposed to accelerate the European battery value chain.

Further EV growth forecast

Assuming measures are adopted as outlined, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will account for 56.7% of European light-vehicle sales by 2030. This will increase to 83% by 2035, and 95.1% by 2040.

These projections assume emissions balancing between 2030 and 2032 and continued alignment of national policies. Some markets, such as Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands, are likely to maintain stricter targets.

The UK is not subject to the EU’s automotive package. It currently plans for an effective ban on new petrol and diesel passenger cars by 2030.

However, the country’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate has been under pressure in recent months, due to missed overall targets. There are calls for the legislation to undergo an urgent review, ahead of a planned consultation next year. Yet no official announcement has been made.

Europe’s big five expect growth

Europe’s largest five markets have all seen differing performances across their new light-vehicle markets in recent years. This is likely to continue, according to EV Volumes’ latest forecast.

France experienced a 5.1% drop in combined sales of passenger cars and LCVs in 2025. This is set to turn around in 2027 with a 1.1% rise. Volumes will continue to improve until 2030, when the market is forecast to experience a 0.8% decline.

However, after three years of marginal share improvement, EVs will see their hold of the overall market in France leap. The technology is forecast to achieve a 31.3% share this year, up from 23.8% in 2025.

This share will continue to rise, reaching 55% by 2030, and 83.7% by 2035. EVs are then expected to make up 95.4% of new-vehicle sales by 2040.

Meanwhile, Germany’s light-vehicle market will only see marginal gains until 2030, including a 1% increase in sales this year. At the start of the next decade, volumes will fall 1.3% but will then continue to improve until 2035.

The country saw a dip in the market share of EVs in both 2023 and 2024, as incentive schemes came to an end. However, the powertrain group picked up in 2025, although still below the 29.2% share recorded in 2022.

This will change in 2026, with EV Volumes forecasting a share of 35.8%, rising to 60.4% by 2030. This EV hold will continue to increase, hitting 89.2% by 2035, before levelling out to 96.7% in 2040.

Italy and Spain embrace EVs

Italy’s new light-vehicle market saw a decline in 2025, but can expect a 6.1% increase in volumes this year. Like other markets, volumes will continue to improve for the rest of this decade, before dipping in 2030.

But the country has been the slowest adopter of EVs among the EU’s big five. Like Germany, the country experienced a dip in market share during 2024. But it bounced back in 2025, and is forecast to reach 17% of the overall market in 2026.

This trend should continue, hitting 40.1% in 2030. This is the lowest market share amongst Europe’s major markets, however. The theme continues, with a hold of 65.8% in 2035, before EVs take 90.3% of new light-vehicle sales in 2040.

Spain’s new light-vehicle market has been the most stable of Europe’s big five in recent years. The market is forecast to improve by 6% this year, with growth continuing until a marginal 0.4% decline in 2030.

Spain has begun to embrace EVs, although its shares are still below those of France, Germany and the UK. Like other continental markets, its shares dipped in 2024. The country bounced back last year, and for 2026, a hold of 22.1% is forecast. This should improve to 47.9% by 2030, before reaching 78.8% in 2035, and achieving a hold of 93.5% by 2040.

UK growth will miss target

New light-vehicle sales in the UK should jump by 4% this year. Like other markets in Europe’s big five, it is expected to grow further until a 1.1% decline in 2030.

The country has a ZEV mandate in place, with target market shares for BEVs and fuel-cell vehicles. However, EV Volumes forecasts a 0% share for hydrogen models through to 2040, placing the mandate responsibility on BEVs alone.

Different shares are targeted for passenger cars and LCVs. In the first two years since the legislation was adopted, the market has failed to meet targets on either vehicle type. This has led to calls for an earlier consultation on the mandate.

The UK is expected to hit a combined light-vehicle EV share of 38.3% this year. The hold is expected to increase to 69.5% by 2030, reaching 94.4% in 2035. The market should see 98% of sales coming from EVs by 2040.

However, in isolation, the BEV passenger car market is forecast to continue falling short of ZEV mandate targets. All-electric models are forecast to account for 27.4% of the market this year, below the 33% requirement.

EV Volumes forecasts a 32.3% hold in 2027, lower than the mandated 38%. In 2030, when the UK government requires 80% of new-car sales to be zero-emission, 60.7% of the total is forecast to come from BEVs.

The LCV sector will fare even worse. EV Volumes forecasts an 11.6% share this year, well below the expected 24% in the ZEV mandate. By 2030, when a 70% hold is required, the latest data suggests just 35.7% of all new van sales will be zero-emission.

May delivered another month of growth for the EU new-car market. But while electric vehicle (EV) sales remained strong, some larger markets saw weaker results. Autovista24 content specialist James Roberts assesses the latest data.

In May, 955,013 new cars were registered in the EU, according to the latest ACEA data. This equated to a 3.2% year-on-year increase in volumes. The month saw 20 of the 27 EU member states record overall market growth. However, while some of the bloc’s larger markets saw a welcome boost, others faltered.

May’s strong result helped facilitate a generally positive performance for the EU new-car market in the year to date. Five months into 2026, 4,748,801 new vehicles were sold. This ensured a 4% year-on-year lift.

Mixed EU market fortunes in May

Despite a fourth consecutive month of increased registrations, Germany, the bloc’s largest market, underperformed in May. With fewer working days than in May 2025, the country’s new-car market recorded just 0.1% growth. This followed the official rollout of new EV incentives.

Spain encountered a rare monthly decline in May. Increasingly recording positive results, the country’s new-car market dipped by 0.8%. Thanks to earlier results, it saw registration growth of 5.8% across the first five months of the year.

As Spain faltered, the previously stuttering French new-car market returned from the doldrums in May. Recording a second consecutive month of growth, registrations rose 3.7%, as battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales in particular, provided a boost.

Similarly, Italy enjoyed BEV uptake in May. The country’s overall new-car market saw a 7.6% lift. Following a difficult 2025, this helped support a year-on-year volume increase of 9.4% in the year to date.

BEVs closing the gap

May saw 203,417 new BEVs join EU roads. This marked a unit increase of 42.9% year on year. It also helped the powertrain capture 21.3% of the market, just 0.7 percentage points (pp) behind petrol‘s share. As ACEA noted, this reflects the positive effect of the region’s patchwork of tax benefits and new EV purchase incentives.

After five months of the year, BEV volumes stood at 950,521. This 35.7% upswing helped carve out a market share of 20%, the highest so far in 2026, up 4.7pp year on year.

Of the EU’s larger markets, France witnessed a 92.7% spike, as 37,412 new all-electric vehicles joined the country’s roads. The powertrain was also integral to growth in Italy, with an 86.5% year-on-year improvement.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands’ BEV sector received a jolt. Volumes increased 22.4% year on year, up from 10,103 units to 12,363. However, after five months of the year, the Dutch BEV market was down 9.7%, compared with 12 months prior.

Amid recently announced EV incentives, Ireland enjoyed a BEV registration uplift. In May 2,328 new all-electric cars took to the nation’s roads. This marked a 114.4% year-on-year lift, aiding a 53.8% rise in the year to date. Croatia continued its impressive BEV market growth. May ensured a bumper 494.5% year-on-year increase, underpinning a small but vibrant marketplace.

A notable contrast to trending BEV growth was seen in Poland. May marked a rare and sizeable year-on-year drop in volumes. A total of 2,015 deliveries was down 28.5%, however, after five months of the year, BEV registrations were up 28.2%.

Steady EU PHEV demand

A total of 98,553 plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) joined EU roads in May. This ensured a 12.2% year-on-year increase, plus a 10.3% market share, up 0.8pp compared with 12 months prior. Spanning the opening five months of the year, PHEV popularity remained sturdy. A total of 460,217 registrations returned a 9.7% market share, up 1.4pp.

Combining strong BEV figures with steady PHEV volumes once again ensured the combined EVs outperformed internal-combustion engine (ICE) sales. May saw 301,970 new EVs reach EU customers, outselling a combination of petrol and diesel vehicles, which totalled 279,865. This meant EVs took a 31.6% market share, 2.3pp ahead of ICE models.

After five months of 2026, the ICE share in the EU’s new-car market remained just 0.4pp ahead of EV totals. June’s new-car market figures could show plug-in vehicles surpassing ICE models.

Hybrids on top but levelling out

Long established as the EU’s new-car powertrain of choice, hybrids, including mild and full-hybrid versions, led the way in May. However, marginal declines in its overall new-car market share continued as EV uptake increased.

May saw 345,427 new hybrids take to the EU’s roads. This ensured a 9.7% year-on-year increase, maintaining its position as the bloc’s dominant powertrain with a 36.2% hold, up 2.2pp. However, since February, the presence of hybrids in the EU market has followed a downward trend.

Between February and May, hybrid’s EU new-car market share slipped from 38.7% to 36.2%. The big question is how much further it could slide throughout the remainder of 2026.

ICE falls amid petrol resilience

The decline of ICE powertrains, made up of petrol and diesel-powered cars, has become an established EU new-car market trend.

In May, just four of the 27 EU member states saw petrol registration growth. Overall, 210,383 new vehicles were powered by the fuel in the month, a 20.1% year-on-year fall. Despite this, petrol still achieved a relatively strong 22% market share, 0.7pp above BEVs, albeit down 6.4pp year on year.

Between January and May, 1,065,071 new petrol vehicles were registered in the EU, a year-on-year fall of 18.2%. Despite a market share decline of 6.1pp to 22.4%, it remained the EU’s second most popular new-car option.

Diesel’s decline continued in May. 69,482 new cars left the EU’s forecourts, marking a 19% year-on-year volume drop and returning a market share of 7.3%.

Across the first five months of the year, diesel sales reached 361,971, down 16.6%, dropping its market share 1.9pp to 7.6%. In this period, just Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia and Malta recorded year-on-year improvements.

New-car ICE totals, combining petrol and diesel registrations, amounted to 1,427,042 between January and May. This equated to a 17.8% slide, and just 16,304 units above EV volumes. So, new ICE vehicles took a 30.1% market share in the year to date, just 0.4pp above new EV sales. The coming months are likely to see a further shift in this crucial EU new-car market dynamic.

Austria’s new electric vehicle (EV) market was previously supported by purchase subsidies. But without their help in 2026, are other incentives sustaining demand? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, reviews the market.

Purchase subsidies can be a major driver in boosting EV sales. This is especially true within the private sector. Austria’s EV market has previously benefited from such a scheme.

However, the federal government ended EV subsidies in February 2025 due to budget exhaustion, the European Alternative Fuels Observatory reports. The body also states that from 1 April 2025, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) were no longer exempt from motor-related insurance tax.

Additionally, the rate of public EV charging infrastructure installation in Austria has slowed, as confirmed by EV Volumes. Their data reveals the number of locations a connector type can be found, reflecting charger variety.

By this metric, there were 20,723 public EV charging locations recorded in the country in May this year. This was equated to year-on-year growth of 14.3%. Meanwhile, May 2025 recorded an increase of 24%.

Prevailing EV growth

Despite these factors, EV sales, including BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), grew across the first four months of 2026.

According to the latest EV Volumes’ data, deliveries in Austria increased by 27.3% year-on-year from January to April. In total, 35,604 units were sold.

This outpaced the overall new-car market, which recorded a 15.3% improvement in the first four months of the year, as reported by Statistik Austria.

Broken down, PHEVs saw a greater improvement than BEVs from January to April. The hybrid technology enjoyed a 37.6% year-on-year rise in volumes to 11,190 units. Meanwhile, all-electric models managed a 23% increase to 24,414 deliveries.

However, the opposite trend occurred in April. BEVs benefited from a 24.8% growth year on year, ahead of the 17.7% gain by PHEVs. Together, overall EV sales growth sat at 22.6% in April, ahead of the overall market’s 10.7% increase.

Attractive EV benefits

One reason for this growth may be other ongoing financial incentives, such as BEVs’ exemption from registration tax.

There are also significant benefits for companies. This includes immunity from ownership and pollution taxes for zero-emission vehicles. Additionally, companies may fully deduct VAT for BEVs priced up to €40,000. Partial deductions are available for vehicles where prices range between €40,000 and €80,000.

Alongside this, while Austria’s government no longer offers purchase subsidies, it is investing in charging infrastructure.

A programme from the Federal Ministry of Innovation, Mobility and Infrastructure, eMove Austria, has allocated around €220 million to e-mobility in 2026. Furthermore, the ministry will invest €30 million in constructing fast-charging stations in rural, underserved areas this year.

In the future, the funding structure will focus on the expansion of charging locations. Ultimately, with these investments, the number of charge points in Austria could see significant growth. In turn, this may convince more buyers to switch to EVs.

Tesla Model Y leads the way

The Tesla Model Y was the most popular option over the first four months of 2026. The crossover recorded 2,047 sales between January and April. It comfortably led the BEV market and held more than double the deliveries of Austria’s leading PHEV.

The Model Y accounted for 5.7% of all new EV sales in the country. Meanwhile, its sibling, the Tesla Model 3 made up 1.5%. The sedan placed ninth in the cumulative table with 538 units, although it did not make April’s top 10.

Meanwhile, the BYD Atto 3 enjoyed the best year-on-year growth of any BEV in April’s top 10. With 241 sales, this represented an increase of 1,105%. While the model placed outside the cumulative top 10, its sibling, the Sealion 7, sat seventh with 775 sales.

Skoda’s high-volume SUVs

The second-best-selling BEV in Austria between January and April was the Skoda Elroq. The SUV recorded 1,493 deliveries, followed by its bigger sibling, the Enyaq, which managed 1,268 sales. The duo were also the top two best-selling BEVs in April, helped by double-digit year-on-year growth.

Four more models from the Volkswagen (VW) Group appeared in the cumulative table. The VW ID.3 finished fourth, with 866 units, as the VW ID.7 secured sixth with 789 sales.

Further down the table, the VW ID.4 landed in eighth with 664 units, while the Audi Q6 e-tron rounded out the table in 10^th. The SUV recorded 531 sales between January and April.

The BMW iX1 posted 806 sales between January and April. This helped its rise to fifth position, splitting the two most-popular VW models.

A turbulent PHEV market

The VW Golf was Austria’s best-selling PHEV between January and April. However, this year has not been straightforward for the hatchback. While its 839-unit total translated into a leading 7.5% market share, just 115 of these sales occurred in April. This was only enough to put it 10^th in the month’s best-sellers table.

Its closest competition came from within the VW Group stable, namely the Cupra Terramar. The SUV posted 685 deliveries in the first four months of the year, while it led April’s monthly standings. The VW Multivan came second in the month, bringing its sales total to 511 from January to April. This was enough for fifth in the cumulative chart.

It was the BYD Seal U that followed the VW Group models after four months of 2026, with 563 units. However, like the VW Golf, the SUV also struggled in April, placing outside the top 10. Yet BYD still secured fifth and eighth in the month, courtesy of the Seal 6 and the Atto 2, respectively.

The Jaecoo J7 was the fourth best-selling PHEV from January to April, thanks to 520 sales. This was helped by a strong monthly result, where the model took third.

Between January and April, the Ford Kuga came sixth with 497 units. The Mercedes-Benz GLC claimed seventh, reaching 450 deliveries, just 10 units ahead of the MG eHS. Rounding out the top 10 were the Volvo XC60 and the BMW X3, with 428 and 411 sales, respectively.

As Europe’s major new-car markets approach the second half of 2026, how did they fare in May? Which ones are on track for success in 2026? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus reveals all in the Automotive Update podcast.

Is the French new-car market becoming reliant on one powertrain? Will the UK meet its zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets? Plus, in the wake of new incentives, is a registration spike expected in Germany? Find out in this latest episode.

Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music.

French new-car market bouncing back?

According to the latest data from PFA and AAA Data, the French new-car market saw a 3.7% lift in volumes in May. This marked the second monthly increase, following a minimal loss in April.

For the second consecutive month, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) volumes grew. Deliveries were up 92.7% in May, equating to 18,001 extra BEVs joining French roads. This helped offset losses across petrol, diesel, hybrids, including both full and mild variants, and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

Aided by incentives and a round of social leasing, between January and May BEV registrations were up 55.4%. This equated to an extra 66,239 units, based on Autovista24 calculations. Recent trends suggest that BEV adoption can offset losses elsewhere, guiding the overall market towards sustained growth. However, pinning hopes on one powertrain does bring risks.

UK new-car targets

The UK new-car market witnessed a 7.1% registration increase in May. This extended its run of year-on-year improvements into six successive months. Between January and May, deliveries increased by 8.7%.

BEVs achieved a 34.2% year-on-year registrations lift, carving out a 27.3% share of the market. Despite consistent increases, the current all-electric market share of 23.9% remains below the ZEV mandate target of 33% for 2026.

Germany’s new EV incentives kick off

Germany’s new-car market grew just 0.1% in May. In total, 239,448 new vehicles took to the country’s roads, according to the latest KBA data.

Electric vehicle (EV) registrations, including BEVs and PHEVs, increased by 28.8%, reaching 87,890 units. All-electric cars led this uplift, rising 39.3%, and pushing the overall EV market share to a healthy 36.7%.

The German government’s new EV incentive scheme offers income-based grants for private buyers and is retroactive to January. Amid building EV sales growth, early signs suggest incentives are reinforcing rather than driving the trend.

With €3 billion in funding targeting 800,000 vehicles by 2029, the scheme is aimed at fostering stability, rather than a short-term spike. Its retroactive structure should help prevent delays in consumer purchases, supporting consistent growth.

Meanwhile, petrol and diesel registrations witnessed steep declines and hybrids slowed, mirroring wider EU trends.

The online portal for Germany’s new electric vehicle (EV) incentives opened in May. This came as the powertrain group bolstered the overall new-car market, while internal-combustion engine (ICE) models struggled. Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, analyses the impact of incentives.

The German new-car market narrowly managed its fourth month of consecutive year-on-year growth in May. Registrations increased by just 0.1%, as 239,448 new models took to the country’s roads, the KBA reported.

According to Autovista24 analysis, this translated to an additional 151 deliveries compared to the same month last year. However, last month saw two fewer working days than May 2025. The VDIK stated that registration growth was 11.2% when adjusting for calendar effects.

Despite a relatively stagnant month, May kept the German new-car market on its path of growth. Deliveries were up 3.6% between January and May, totalling 1,188,015 units. At first glance, Germany’s new EV incentives for private buyers appear to be a driving force behind this improvement.

The powertrain group enjoyed soaring volumes in the cumulative figures and during May, while ICE models continued their decline. However, a closer look at the figures reveals that EV incentives were not the only factor at play.

EV incentives activated

After being revealed in January, the online application portal for Germany’s new EV incentives opened on 19 May.

The scheme offers a direct grant for the purchase and lease of new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), extended-range electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles (EREVs). PHEVs and EREVs must meet climate protection standards and will be approved up to June 2027.

The model must be bought by a private individual and needs to be kept for at least 36 months. Taxable household income and family size determine the amount of funding available for each applicant. Importantly, retroactive applications are eligible back to 1 January 2026.

‘These EV incentives are an important building block in creating additional purchase stimulus and stimulating the private EV market in a targeted manner. From now on, car dealerships will be in the front row with great motivation to inspire customers for this subsidy,’ commented ZDK president Thomas Peckruhn.

‘The current trend in demand shows that more customers are consciously opting for an EV,’ he noted. The new incentives were also well received by another industry body, which highlighted an uptick in BEV orders.

‘The federal government’s funding is an additional incentive, especially for small and medium-sized incomes, where price sensitivity plays a special role. The development of demand is optimistic, with incoming orders for BEVs more than doubling compared to the same month last year,’ said VDIK president Imelda Labbé.

An immediate impact?

EV deliveries rose by 28.8% year-on-year to 87,890 units, the smallest improvement since February 2026. Within this category, BEVs recorded a 39.3% increase to 59,969 deliveries. For PHEVs, a 10.9% upswing to 27,921 units was the lowest growth of 2026 so far.

Even so, EVs’ slice of the new-car market did not thin in May. Despite a 0.2 percentage point (pp) drop in share from April, EVs’ 36.7% hold was up 8.2pp year on year.

BEVs suffered a month-on-month fall of 0.8pp to a 25% share. However, this represented an increase of 7pp compared to May 2025. Conversely, PHEVs’ share rose by 0.6pp from April, reaching 11.7%. This was up 1.2pp compared to 12 months prior.

May’s results remained roughly in line with the cumulative EV performance. Volumes grew by 32% in the first five months of the year, as the powertrain’s share reached 35%. This was up 7.5pp from the same period in 2025.

BEV deliveries improved by 40.9% between January and May. This gave the technology a 23.9% slice of the market, up 6.3pp year on year. PHEV volumes grew by 16.1%, while its hold rose by 1.2pp to 11.1%.

Consistent growth to continue?

This indicates year-on-year EV growth could continue at a consistent pace, rather than resulting in a short-term delivery spike.

This is in part thanks to the new EV subsidies’ long-term ambition. The government has allocated €3 billion to the scheme and aims to subsidise around 800,000 vehicles by the end of 2029.

By contrast, Italy’s latest EV incentives, launched in October 2025 with more than €597 million in funding, were exhausted within 24 hours.

The retroactive design of Germany’s scheme may also result in a more balanced rise throughout this year. This is because buyers did not need to hold off on purchases at the start of 2026. Even so, June will provide more answers on whether the programme’s activation will cause a steep EV registration surge.

Brands to benefit from EV incentives?

Germany’s new EV incentives also differ from the UK’s scheme, which uses a split-tier system based on strict sustainability criteria.

Instead, Germany’s subsidy puts all carmakers on an equal footing. It allows brands that import vehicles to Europe to benefit from the same eligibility as those hailing from the continent. This comes as the balance between domestic and international brands in Germany’s BEV market is shifting.

‘The disproportionate increase in the BEV market share of international manufacturers is due to their strong product range, especially in the entry-level segment. It is also due to the lower operating costs compared to ICE models,’ explained Labbé.

Some non-European brands, such as Tesla, saw strong growth in the overall new-car market during May. The US marque enjoyed the best year-on-year growth of any brand that recorded more than 100 registrations. Its 322.4% improvement was paired with a 2.1% share.

Meanwhile, BYD held a 2.6% share, benefiting from a 232.1% improvement. Xpeng managed a comparable growth of 240.3% on a smaller share of 0.3%. Leapmotor was a little further ahead, after a 139.1% improvement left it with a 0.5% share. Smart recorded a similar increase of 140.2% year on year, as it represented 0.3% of all new-car deliveries.

Declining domestic brands

Meanwhile, a declining trend was seen across most of Germany’s best-selling brands during May. Mercedes-Benz saw registrations fall by 8.9%, despite moving the second largest number of new cars, taking an 8.3% share.

BMW, the third best-selling carmaker in May, endured a 3.4% fall while keeping an 8.2% market share. The Volkswagen (VW) brand was some way ahead of them both with a 19% slice of the market. However, it also suffered an 8.9% delivery drop compared to May 2025.

Looking at VW Group brands, Audi felt a 2.7% downturn in volumes as it took fifth in the best-sellers table. Skoda was above it, with an 0.8% decline in registrations. SEAT sat sixth, after a 4.6% year-on-year delivery drop.

Only two carmakers in the top 10 best-sellers list recorded growth. This was Opel and Renault, as registrations rose by 9.9% and 43.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the only two brands in the list originating from outside of Europe saw declines. Hyundai suffered a 16.9% drop, as Ford volumes fell by 21.7%.

Poor ICE performance

With some brands experiencing a more difficult May, so too did ICE models. Petrol deliveries plummeted by 23.7% to 51,806 units, as its market share fell 6.8pp to 21.6%. This placed it 3.4pp behind BEVs.

Diesel suffered a shallower drop of 13% year on year to 30,547 deliveries. In turn, its grip on the market loosened by 1.9pp to 12.8%. This was just 1.1pp ahead of PHEVs.

Combining petrol and diesel figures, ICE models made up 34.4% of total new-car volumes. This was 2.3pp behind EVs and 8.7pp down year on year. The ICE group’s 20.1% fall in May was diluted to a 15.3% drop in the cumulative figures. Between January and May, the share of ICE models remained ahead of EVs by 0.7pp, at 35.7%.

This decline was mostly powered by petrol’s 18.5% slump in the first five months of the year. This caused its share to decline by 6.1pp to 22.2%. Diesel’s slice of the market also thinned by 1.9pp to 13.4%, paired with a 9.3% drop in volumes.

No help from hybrids?

Hybrids saw a more positive performance, but did not offer much help in May. The technology, which includes full and mild hybrids, saw just 555 additional units registered last month compared to May 2025.

This translated to a 0.8% growth, with 67,545 new models delivered. Hybrids still led the market with a 28.2% share, up 0.2pp from May 2025.

However, this slowing growth could indicate that private buyers are beginning to move away from technology. Instead, they may be more inclined to opt for EVs now that incentives have been activated. Between January and May, hybrid figures rose by 5.4%, while its share was up 0.5pp to 29%.

As ICE deliveries fall and hybrids potentially face a slowdown, EV registration growth will become essential to the new-car market’s health. Therefore, the effectiveness of Germany’s latest EV incentives will have a big impact on the country’s automotive sector.

A leading light in Europe’s new-car market landscape, Spain, witnessed a rare downturn in May. As electric vehicle (EV) incentives continue to be formalised, is there any cause for concern? Autovista24 content specialist James Roberts assesses the latest data.

Spain’s new-car market recorded a year-on-year decline in May, the first such fall since December 2025. However, the month’s data was compared with a particularly strong performance 12 months prior.

In total, 111,894 new vehicles took to Spanish roads last month. This marked a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, and a deficit of 926 units based on Autovista24 calculations of available Faconauto and ANFAC data.

Despite the relatively small drop in volumes, it is a shift from the sustained monthly improvements recently achieved. As a result, expected challenges could be coming to fruition.

Despite this, across the first five months of the year, the Spanish new-car market remained in positive territory. Overall, 519,283 new passenger cars reached customers according to ANFAC, up 5.8% year on year.

New EV incentive framework delays

Spain’s consistently strong new-car market has been aided by EV incentives. During 2025, the MOVES III programme saw impressive year-on-year volume increases for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

This year has seen the framework replaced with the Auto Plan+, formally announced in December last year. However, despite further clarity in February, this more centralised EV incentive scheme is yet to be formally activated. Although incentives will be retroactively available from 1 January 2026, the full operational announcement is yet to be finalised.

Despite continued EV proliferation in Spain’s new-car market, some industry observers have voiced concern regarding these delays.

‘Spain is betting heavily on electrification,’ stated José López-Tafall, general director of ANFAC. ‘The Auto+ plan should not be delayed any longer, it is a key tool to boost demand and facilitate citizens’ access to electrified mobility.

‘The future of our industry, essential for our country, lies in electrification and if we want to consolidate ourselves as an industrial hub, having a strong market is a fundamental issue. Because, as stated in the Spain Auto 2030 Plan, this is the time to decide if we want to be only a market or, in addition, a strong market backed by a benchmark industrial hub in Europe,’ he added.

BEV demand proves strong

May saw 12,049 new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) join Spain’s car parc. This marked a 34.4% year-on-year upswing, amounting to 3,084 additional units, according to Autovista24 calculations of the latest industry data.

Despite some uncertainty surrounding the Auto+ plan, May’s BEV total returned a double-digit monthly share. Its 10.8% hold ensured a 2.9 percentage point (pp) lift, compared with 12 months prior.

Between January and May, 48,998 new BEVs reached customers in Spain, a healthy 39.9% year-on-year boost. As a result, the all-electric new-car market share stood at 9.4%. This was a modest year-on-year gain of 2.3pp.

In May, 13,741 new PHEVs were registered in Spain. This equated to the lowest year-on-year growth so far in 2026, with deliveries rising just 6.6%. The additional 845 units helped carve out a 12.3% market share.

Across the first five months of the year, the powertrain’s market share seemingly hit a cul-de-sac of 12%. This was thanks to the registration of 62,388 units, which still marked a sizeable 46.7% year-on-year uplift.

Plug-in market share stagnation?

Despite healthy sales, the plug-in market share of BEV and PHEV volumes proved static in Spain between January and May.

Combined, 111,386 new BEVs and PHEVs joined Spain’s roads in the first five months of 2026. This 43.6% year-on-year surge reflects an increase in electrified model options on the market and incentivisation.

After five months of the year, the technology’s market share stood at 21.5%. Although this marks a positive 5.7pp lift, it was just 0.7pp up on January. This apparent stasis could be a symptom of incentive uncertainty. It remains to be seen whether the expected clarity will help boost the plug-in market share further.

Hybrids continue to electrify Spain

In step with much of Europe’s new-car market, hybrids, consisting of both full and mild-hybrid technologies, remained popular in Spain.

In total, 53,414 new models were registered in May. This equated to a year-on-year lift of 18.7%, plus a 47.7% market hold, which was mirrored in the year-to-date results. Between January and May, hybrid registrations jumped by 19.5% to 247,755 units.

Combining hybrid volumes and the EV total saw a continued lift in the electrified vehicle share in Spain. After five months of the year, this powertrain mix took a 69.2% market share, gaining 11.2pp. This was the result of 359,141 deliveries, up 26.1% year on year.

ICE remains an electrification hurdle

Monthly year-on-year double-digit declines for both new petrol and diesel registrations continued in Spain during May. Despite this, petrol remained the second best-selling new-car option across the first five months of the year.

The fuel type recorded 122,249 registrations, down 20.3% year on year. However, it did retain a 23.5% market share. This made petrol Spain’s second most popular powertrain after hybrids, 14.1pp ahead of BEVs, and 11.5pp above PHEVs.

Meanwhile, diesel sales have continued to nosedive in the same five-month period. Just 20,046 units were accounted for, ensuring a 27.6% year-on-year volume drop, and a market share of just 3.9%, down 1.7pp.

Internal-combustion engines (ICEs), merging petrol and diesel volumes, reached 142,295 between January and May. This 21.4% year-on-year slide contributed to a market share of 27.4%, down 9.5pp.

Despite this established ICE tailspin, the grouping was 5.9pp ahead of plug-in vehicles in Spain’s new-car market. Major questions remain: how long before the deficit is defunct, and can EV incentive clarification expedite this switch?

Propelled by consumer demand, the EU’s new-car market grew again in April. Additionally, the bloc is seeing increased electric vehicle (EV) uptake, disrupting the powertrain dynamic. Autovista24 content specialist James Roberts investigates the latest data.

In April 972,314 new passenger cars took to the EU’s roads, according to the latest data from ACEA. This marked a 5.1% year-on-year improvement, and a third consecutive month of registrations growth. Overall, 17 of the 27 member states witnessed new-car market expansion.

‘The market continued to benefit from strong consumer demand for a range of electrified technologies. This was supported by new and revised tax benefits and incentive schemes across major European countries,’ ACEA said in a statement. 

New hybrids, incorporating both full and mild hybrids, continued to be popular in April. However, EV registrations, comprising battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), also increased. Their popularity meant the plug-in market share overtook that of internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars for the first time this year.

After the first four months of 2026, a total of 3,794,280 new vehicles left EU forecourts, a 4.2% year-on-year uplift.

Growth for three big EU markets

In April, three of the EU’s biggest new-car markets enjoyed success. Germany, the bloc’s largest automotive marketplace, witnessed a modest 2.7% growth. Spain saw registrations climb by 8.4%, and Italy enjoyed a double-digit lift at 11.6%. However, France ended April in negative territory, with new-car volumes down by 0.3% year on year.

Outside of the EU’s big four, Poland continued to see robust growth. Aided by strong PHEV demand, the country saw new-car volumes increase by 10.3% overall. Similarly, Austria witnessed a 10.7% rise, maintaining its strong start to 2026.

The largest year-on-year registration growth came in Estonia. A total of 1,914 registrations gave the Baltic State a 78% volume increase. This is a significant turnaround for a nation whose market struggled in 2025.

EV demand remains vibrant in EU

April saw EV deliveries reach the second-highest monthly total so far this year. Combined BEV and PHEV registrations reached 295,682 units, up by 30% year on year.

This resulted in a monthly EV market share of 30.4%, a new high point, and an increase of 5.8 percentage points (pp) on one year prior. Spanning January to April, the plug-in sector hit a share of 29.3%, up by 6pp.

In April, BEV registrations in the EU increased by 37.7%, enabling a 20.6% market share, up 4.9pp. Of the largest markets, Italy enjoyed bumper BEV uptake in April. The country signalled a 98.8% year-on-year increase in volumes, with 13,199 new all-electric vehicles delivered. This came despite some industry concern regarding potential market fragility.

Overall, the EU’s largest markets saw continued EV uptake. Following a trailblazing 2025, Spain’s affiliation with all-electric motoring looks set to continue this year. April saw BEV registrations soar by 42.8% year on year, and PHEVs were up by 42.3%. This was despite some uncertainty over the status of new national EV incentives. Germany enjoyed a 41.3% all-electric increase in registrations. The result came as new EV incentives were formalised.

Amid overall new-car market stasis, France recorded an encouraging BEV delivery uplift in April, amounting to 41.8%. Aided by domestic options, such as the Renault 5 and Citroën e-C3, plus appealing incentives, this sector could be key to wider prosperity in 2026.

Smaller markets turning to BEVs

In total, 25 of the 27 EU member states witnessed year-on-year BEV volume improvements. Seven markets even recorded triple-digit percentage growth.

Continuing to impress, Croatia managed the largest BEV registration increase. The Balkan nation saw all-electric registrations jump by 450%, with 330 units accounted for in April. Alongside this, PHEV volumes increased by 158.5%.

Both Ireland and Hungary saw BEV registrations exceed four figures in April. This helped carve out a year-on-year boost of 105.2% and 101.7%, respectively. Slovenia also saw notable electrification, with BEV totals reaching 1,038 units in April, up 159.5% year on year.

PHEV popularity petering out?

While BEV uptake across the EU continued to plough a positive furrow, PHEV demand painted a more mixed picture. Overall, 16 EU member states saw year-on-year plug-in hybrid increases.

In total, 95,565 new PHEVs joined the EU’s car parc in April. Despite a 16.4% year-on-year registrations uplift, the powertrain’s market share reached 9.8%, up just 1pp compared with 12 months prior.

Across the first four months of the year, new PHEV deliveries increased by 26% year on year. However, the powertrain’s market share equated to just 9.6%, up 1.7pp. With BEV fortunes on the up, this trend could hint at a tipping point towards full electrification for some EU new-car buyers.

Hybrid highs hold for now

In April, a total of 359,056 new hybrid vehicles were registered in the EU, according to ACEA. This resulted in the second-highest monthly total of 2026, plus a year-on-year increase of 12%. The result helped solidify the powertrain’s place as the bloc’s most popular new-car choice.

Between January and April, hybrid power accounted for 38.2% of the market, up 2.9pp. This meant 1,447,864 units with the powertrain were delivered. Combined with new BEV and PHEV totals, new electrified passenger cars made up 67.4% of all registrations four months into the year. This was an 8.8pp surge.

Notably, the cumulative hybrid market share has decreased 0.4pp since January. While this may appear marginal, it suggests that a turn towards BEVs as a new-car option across the EU could be taking share away. Whether it is enough to satisfy wider decarbonisation targets remains to be seen.

Story of ICE decline continues

ICE registrations, comprising petrol and diesel models, once again declined in April. Overall, four nations saw year-on-year petrol registration improvements, and seven witnessed diesel demand increase.

In total, 292,467 new ICE vehicles left EU forecourts, down by 16.5% year on year. This dropped the market share to 30.1% for the month, down 7.7pp. This put ICE 0.3pp below the plug-in market share, a new development for 2026.

After four months of the year, the ICE market share sat at 30.2%. This remained 0.9pp above plug-in volumes. With robust EV registrations prevailing across the EU, how long will it be before the gap is eroded?

Amid the continued shift towards electrified powertrains, petrol appeal remains relatively solid. April saw 218,485 new cars reach EU customers. Despite a 16.3% year-on-year volume fall, the fuel type accounted for 22.5% of the overall market. This was 1.9pp ahead of BEVs.

As petrol hangs on, diesel continued to fall away in April. In total, 73,982 new vehicles were registered, equating to a year-on-year slide of 17.1% and a market share of 7.6%.

Four months into 2026, diesel captured 7.7% of the EU new-car market. Notably, despite the continued drop off in demand, it only saw a fall of 1.9pp year on year.

Italy’s new-car market surged forward in April, as electrified vehicles continued to provide momentum. More generally, other powertrains, sales channels, and even individual brands prospered. Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, reviews the figures.

In April, a total of 155,145 new cars were registered in Italy, a rise of 11.6% year on year. According to ANFIA data, this was the market’s second double-digit increase in 2026. It also marked the country’s fifth consecutive month of growth. The result was boosted by an additional working day in April 2026 compared to one year prior.

Strong sales of electrified vehicles, including hybrids, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) proved pivotal. Additionally, private buyers were identified as the key growth driver in April.

‘Private customers were the main force supporting demand during the month, as the only channel to record double-digit growth. They accounted for almost 50% of all registrations in April,’ said ANFIA president Roberto Vavassori.

After four months of 2026, registrations increased by 9.8% in Italy, with 639,736 units leaving forecourts. This equated to a further 56,882 deliveries compared to the same period in 2025, according to Autovista24 analysis. ‘In light of the trend recorded in the first four months of 2026, we have revised our full-year forecast upwards. The market could now target volumes around 10% higher than in 2025,’ projected Vavassori.

Uncertain market environment

Despite the positive headline figures, industry experts have warned that the underlying market environment remains uncertain.

‘The market is moving but remains trapped by the fragility of the wider environment. Without a stable and predictable framework, demand is put on hold,’ said Roberto Pietrantonio, president of UNRAE.

‘Today, the real issue is confidence. Families and businesses are postponing decisions because the environment is changing faster than their certainty,’ he confirmed.

Confidence concerns are also currently a key theme for dealers in Italy. According to UNRAE, delayed government electric vehicle (EV) incentive repayments are leaving some forecourts financially exposed.

Usually, dealers discount the car for the customer upfront, expecting the government to reimburse them later. However, if repayment is slow, dealers can be left out of pocket.

‘Regarding incentives, the issue of Italy’s Environment and Energy Ministry (MASE) grant reimbursements is becoming even more urgent, given the significant financial exposure borne by dealers,’ stated the industry body.

Company car taxation changes?

Meanwhile, UNRAE also called for company car taxation reforms and clarified their high importance in determining Italy’s new-car market competitiveness.

‘We need urgent structural changes to reform vehicle taxation in a ‘green’ direction. This includes VAT deductibility, cost deductibility and depreciation periods,’ outlined Pietrantonio.

‘A gradual yet concrete approach should be adopted, starting immediately with the most effective lever, deductibility, to renew fleets and accelerate the adoption of zero- and ultra-low-emission vehicles.’

‘The taxation of company cars still rests on a framework designed for an outdated context that is now very different from the current one. Its structure no longer reflects either the evolution of the market or the objectives of the electric transition. Updating it today is not only appropriate, but it is necessary,’ he commented.

EV sales soar in Italy

Amid ongoing discussions around EV incentive reimbursements and greener company car taxation, current plug-in volumes in Italy are soaring.

Combining BEV and PHEV totals, this grouping enjoyed an 84.8% improvement in deliveries during April. A total of 27,142 new EVs were registered, translating to a 17.5% market share, up 6.9 percentage points (pp) year on year.

BEVs saw the greater growth of the two technologies, with a 98.8% year-on-year surge in April to 13,199 units. However, its 8.5% share, while up 3.7pp, was still behind the 9% held by PHEVs. This was thanks to 13,943 deliveries, an upswing of 73.2% compared to 12 months prior.

Between January and April, EV registrations increased by 85.6% year on year to 105,286 units. This accounted for 16.5% of overall new-car volumes, up 6.8pp. However, this was still 10.5pp below the share of internal-combustion engines (ICE), which combines petrol and diesel figures.

PHEVs enjoyed a strong improvement in the cumulative figures, recording a 99.2% rise to 54,000 registrations. The powertrain’s share grew from 4.7% to 8.4%, putting it 0.4pp ahead of BEV’s 8% hold. All-electric models posted a 73.1% increase in the first four months of 2026, with 51,286 deliveries.

Healthy hybrid market

Hybrids, including full and mild powertrains, continued as the driving force behind the country’s overall new-car market improvements.

The technology posted an additional 14,802 units in April 2026 compared to one year prior. This brought its total for the month to 75,775 registrations, a 24.3% increase.

Without hybrid sales, Italy’s new-car market would have recorded growth of just 1.6%. The powertrain took a dominant 48.8% slice of total deliveries, up 5pp year on year.

Its share in the cumulative figures is even more staggering. Hybrids made up 50.8% of all registrations between January and April, up 6.3pp from the same period one year prior. This was thanks to a 25.5% growth in volumes to 325,182 deliveries.

Adding hybrids to EVs, the electrified market is seemingly unstoppable in Italy. The grouping captured 66.3% of overall registrations in April, up 11.9pp year on year. After four months of the year, the groupings’ share reached 67.3%. This was up 13.1pp from the same period one year ago.

ICE market in peril

In contrast, the ICE market faced yet more declines in April. Deliveries slumped by 18.1% last month, with 42,851 units. As EVs and electrified models make strong gains, ICE’s slice of the market thinned by 10pp to 27.6%.

Diesel had a particularly poor month, with a 22.4% year on year drop in April to 11,122 units. It represented 7.2% of overall volumes, down from 10.3%. Meanwhile, petrol suffered a 16.5% decline to 31,729 deliveries, as its share fell by 6.8pp to 20.5%.

Things were even bleaker for ICE models in the cumulative data. Volumes plummeted by 19.5% to 173,016 units, while its hold on the market loosened by 9.9pp to 27%. This put it 40.3pp behind the electrified market, and 23.8pp behind hybrids alone.

Petrol’s share slumped by 6.8pp to 20%, after an 18% fall to 127,794 units. Even so, the fuel type remained Italy’s second-most-popular powertrain. It sat 11.6pp ahead of PHEVs, petrol’s closest competitor.

Diesel had an even steeper decline of 23.3%, with 45,222 registrations. Consequently, its share dropped from 10.1% to 7.1%. This puts it 1.3pp and 0.9pp behind PHEVs and BEVs, respectively.

Fiat leads the way

Fiat was the best-selling brand in Italy’s new-car market during April. The carmaker saw volumes soar by 31% year on year to 16,009 units in its domestic market. This ensured a 10.3% share. The Fiat Panda was also the country’s best-selling new car in the month, with 8,571 registrations. Meanwhile, the Grande Panda posted 3,685 units.

However, other Stellantis brands did not experience the same positivity. Peugeot endured a 7.5% delivery slump on its way to fourth place in the standings. The Peugeot 208 still made the top 10 best-sellers list, with 3,558 registrations.

Jeep faced a 4.3% decline in ninth, even with the second-best-selling model in April. This was the Jeep Avenger, which recorded 4,221 units. Meanwhile, Citroen suffered a 4.8% fall in 10^th, with the C3 accounting for 3,503 units alone.

The second-best-selling brand in April was Toyota, with 11,369 registrations. This translated to a 7.3% year on year growth, matching its 7.3% market share. Its most popular model in the month was the Aygo X, which contributed 3,372 units to Toyota’s total.

Leapmotor’s four-digit delivery surge

Just 109 units behind Toyota was Volkswagen (VW) with a 1% improvement last month. The marque’s most popular model was the T-Roc, with 3,074 units.

Yet the carmaker’s rise paled in comparison to Audi’s delivery surge. Volumes grew by 15.5% at the fellow VW Group brand, as it took eighth in the best-sellers table. However, this was still not enough to beat BMW. Its German rival sat just 25 units ahead in seventh with a 4.5% registrations rise.

Dacia and Renault also placed close together, with only 318 units separating the two carmakers in April. The former finished fifth after a 2.3% delivery drop, despite the Sandero taking fourth in the best-selling models list with 4,040 deliveries. Renault enjoyed a 1.8% year-on-year improvement in sixth.

However, the biggest growth in Italy’s new-car market was seen outside the top 10 best-selling brands. Leapmotor saw volumes soar by 1,300.6% year on year, with its total translating to a 2.9% market share. Out of its 4,496 deliveries in April, 4,090 units came solely from the T03, which placed third in the best-selling models list.

Omoda enjoyed a similar surge of 977.4%, giving it a 2.5% slice of the overall market. EMC, while only holding a 0.2% share, recorded a 562.7% uptick in deliveries.

Then came Jaecoo, with 195.4% year-on-year growth and a 1.1% hold. Finally, BYD made up 2.9% of the market, just 76 units ahead of Leapmotor, after a 171.7% rise in registrations.