Insights

Price differences between European used-car markets are creating cross-border sales opportunities for dealers, especially for electric vehicles (EVs). However, after identifying these opportunities, utilising them efficiently and at scale can present a challenge. Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, explores the topic at this year’s Used Vehicle Retail Summit. Different European used-car markets can see varied metrics in terms of pricing, stock days and residual values (RVs). This regional difference also applies to EV demand, which is seeing variable adoption rates across the continent. For example, the average trade RV of 36-month-old battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) at 60,000km diverged between neighbouring countries in March. According to Autovista24's Monthly Market Update, this value sat at €16,371 in France, while in Spain, BEV RVs stood at €24,553. The average number of days needed to sell a two-to-four-year-old BEV also experienced contrasting results across Europe in the month. The turnover rate was 84.2 days in France, compared to an average of 58.8 days in Germany. In this context, cross-border remarketing can unlock potentially untapped value. It allows sellers to capitalise on locations where EV demand is greater, prices are higher, and stock days are lower. It also presents an opportunity to move models away from a market experiencing stagnating demand or oversupply. Cross-border opportunities ‘Supply and demand levels in every single market are continuously evolving and changing. It is simply impossible to manually monitor supply and demand for each market continuously. You need technology,’ outlined Jan-Willem Seeder, founder and CEO of JP.Cars, in his presentation. ‘If you are not using technology, you are always reacting to the market. The concept of supply, demand and marketability is not so complex. The complexity is seeing and monitoring it in real time,’ he noted. Continuously evolving supply and demand can cause different outcomes in each country, even for the same model. Seeder stated that in Germany, all the signals clearly show that [EV] demand significantly outpaced supply. Turnover rates increased, stock indexes dropped, selling indexes rose significantly, and prices went up as well,’ stated Seeder. Jan Willem Seeder, founder and CEO of JP.Cars. ‘If you must buy a BEV in Germany, given these signals, I can imagine it is a very tight market today,’ he said. ‘The question might be, where can I source these cars? Maybe there are markets with other supply and demand ratios across Europe where you could potentially buy similar cars.’ He recognised that there are markets in Europe where supply and demand ratios are different from those in Germany. There could be buying opportunities in numerous markets where buyers could source vehicles. ‘If you have purchased cars for 100 years from a single source in Germany, and that source is providing you with EVs, you will have a very hard time. The market is not local anymore; the market is international,’ he commented. Optimising cross-border adverts Rolf Westgeest, founder of Eurostocks, focused on how cross-border transactions operate on classified marketplace portals. These online platforms allow buyers to search listings and contact sellers directly, rather than purchasing through the platform. ‘There are two things in cross-border trade you can do as a car dealer or retailer. You can go on the auction side with lower prices and fast sales. Or you can go to the classified marketplace portals. It is a higher price, but it could be slower sales of 30 days, 90 days or one year.’ So, if dealers want to benefit from these higher prices, they will need to navigate potentially slower sales. Westgeest highlighted multiple areas where dealers can improve. From left to right: Rolf Westgeest, founder of Eurostocks. Michel van Roon, founder and co-owner of Novatrade24. Westgeest explained that having adverts appear at the top of search queries can help tackle delays. Photo quality and selection can make a big difference in achieving a high search ranking. The number of reviews under a dealer's profile is also important. Using analytics provided by the portals can help optimise every advert, too. Despite all this, lead response times can often be the deciding factor. ‘After one hour, 50% of the leads are lost because they are already in a conversation with somebody else. In these portals, people send multiple emails to different dealerships selling the same cars. The first one to respond can make the appointment and win the sale,’ Westgeest told the audience. Overall, Westgeest highlighted that cross-border sales do not need to be difficult, especially when using marketplace portals. Dealers will see the best results if they choose the right cars, tools, and strategies for online advertising. Cross-border risks Alongside benefits, cross-border used-vehicle sales can also come with some legal risks. This can include unintentional participation in value-added tax (VAT) fraud schemes or money laundering ploys. Michel van Roon, founder and co-owner of Novatrade24, explained that this possibility has caused dealerships to hold back. ‘By not participating [in cross-border sales] dealerships leave money on the table, because they are afraid of getting trapped into these schemes. If you want to step into that game, you need to know the rules. You must keep in mind that the tax authorities will have one question. Did you know or could you have known that your buyer was a criminal?’ outlined van Roon. From left to right: Michel van Roon, founder and co-owner of Novatrade24. Rolf Westgeest, founder of Eurostocks. Van Roon then outlined the evidence dealers must provide to apply the 0% VAT rate when exporting vehicles. The information and research required is extensive. He also noted that the person responsible for this in a dealership is usually a salesperson. ‘If you look at how much time you take in getting leads, a salesperson should not chase documents. They should chase leads. That is their job. So, if you look at this cross-border trade process, it is full of friction,’ he commented. Is cooperation the key? Van Roon suggested that dealerships in the automotive industry cooperate on this issue. To solve it, digital platforms can be used to simplify cross-border vehicle trading. These platforms manage the legal, administrative, and transaction processes between buyers and sellers in different countries. This can make dealers more confident when participating in cross-border sales. It can also increase trust between dealers, tax authorities and banks. ‘Cross-border compliance does not need to hold you back from doing the trades you need to do to get the best results. But beware of the consequences and requirements,’ warned van Roon. Together, these sessions highlighted a clear opportunity in the European used-car market. Price fragmentation, especially among EVs, is creating significant opportunity for sellers. However, only those with the right tools and processes to act across borders stand to benefit.

Are levels of supply and demand balanced across major European used-car markets? Alongside regional experts, Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus explores the data from March in the latest Monthly Market Update. There were positive developments in both supply and demand across many major European used-car markets during March. Key performance indicators, including the sales-volume index (SVI) and the active-market volume index (AMVI) in many countries, reveal an emerging balance. Cars 24 to 48 months old saw dealership sales increase compared to February in four of the seven observed markets. While changes in France and Italy were marginally negative, the UK saw a double-digit decline. However, the country also saw one of the biggest stock day improvements, with cars taking less time to sell. Changes in the SVI were more uniform across markets when compared with March 2025. Only Italy saw the indicator drop, with a small 1.1% fall. Meanwhile, Germany, the UK and Spain all recorded double-digit increases. Five of the seven observed markets saw year-on-year AMVI growth, exceeding the SVI performance as more used-car adverts appeared. This reveals a normalisation in supply, which was mirrored in the month-on-month results. Only the UK saw a downturn within this comparison. So, many major used-car markets are seeing greater balance in the supply and demand of used cars. However, if supply outpaces demand, residual values (RVs) will feel greater pressure as stock levels exceed the number of buyers. Austria sees stronger turnover Austria’s SVI for two‑to‑four‑year‑old passenger cars continued to improve in March. After a strong rebound in February, the metric increased by 7.1% month on month. Compared with March 2025, the SVI was 3.2% higher, marking an improvement from the year‑on‑year decline reported in February. The AMVI also edged slightly higher. It recorded a 1.7% month‑on‑month increase and a 3.7% year-on-year rise. This confirmed that stock was above last year’s levels. ‘Turnover strengthened noticeably in March,’ highlighted Robert Madas, regional head of valuations. ‘The average time needed to sell a car dropped to 69.7 days, a significant seven‑day month-on-month improvement. Compared to March 2025, days to sell were broadly stable.’ Diesel models took the lead in turnover speed again, with an average of 65.2 days to sell. This was followed by petrol cars taking an average of 70.6 days to sell. Then came plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 73.5 days, followed by battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) at 75.7 days. This was a significant improvement of 13.1 days from last month. Full hybrids (HEVs) took the longest time to sell at 79.4 days. Pricing dynamics showed slightly increasing developments. The average trade RV of 36‑month‑old cars at 60,000km increased to €23,070, up 2.1% month on month and 7.8% year on year. Structural depreciation pressures RVs as a percentage of retained list price (%RV) improved to 47.3%, up 0.2 percentage points (pp) compared to February. Year on year, %RVs decreased by 0.7pp, pointing to ongoing structural depreciation pressure amid rising supply and normalising demand. List prices remained at elevated levels, climbing to an average of €48,765, an increase of 1.8% month on month and 9.3% higher year on year. HEVs retained the highest trade value at 50.5%, followed by petrol cars at 49.4%. Then came diesel models with 48.2% and PHEVs with 45.4%. BEVs held the lowest %RV once again, at 37.7%. ‘The RV outlook remained broadly unchanged. %RVs are forecast to decline gradually over the coming years as supply normalises further,’ Madas said. In December 2026, a 0.5% year-on-year decline is forecast. This decline is expected to accelerate to 0.7% in 2027, indicating a slow but steady downward trajectory in retained values. This is consistent with a market that is more balanced and less supply-constrained than in recent years. France sees RV bounce ‘RVs fell slightly in France during March, compensating for the slight increases recorded in previous months,’ explained Ludovic Percier, senior RV analyst for France. ‘This brought the overall RV trend back to levels seen in November 2025.’ Petrol-powered car values decreased marginally but were stable compared with November 2025. Overall, the fuel type has seen a level RV performance, while other powertrains experienced larger decreases. Additionally, petrol is still offered by many manufacturers while diesel models are getting rarer. Diesel recorded a slight RV fall in March but still did better than at the end of 2025. The fuel type continues to see demand in the used-car market. Fleets are also not buying as many new diesel-powered cars as they have previously. HEVs saw a small value drop last month. The powertrain has been gaining popularity among manufacturers as they offer more models with the technology. This means more HEVs on the used-car market, with most of these new entrants being from established brands. Toyota continues to lead the way on the used HEV market. In recent months, three Toyota models have appeared in the top five fastest-selling ranking for the powertrain. Overall, used HEVs are still in demand in France, but carmakers cannot risk adding big price premiums to these models. This would jeopardise their value retention. PHEV supply and demand imbalance The supply and demand for PHEVs remains imbalanced. In previous years, many vehicles were sold to fleets on the back of fiscal advantages, with a high list price on the new-car market. This strategy explains such low RVs. Vehicles offering an electric-only range of below 60km have been most affected. PHEVs were once again among the slower-selling used cars in France. There was a decline in average days to sell in March as more of these models came back from leasing. Compared with newer PHEVs, the electric range of these older units is not as substantial. Larger electric ranges have supported the value retention of more recent plug-in hybrids. BEV values were stable after months of declines. Three years ago, models were being launched with greater ranges. The impact of this can now be seen on the used-car market, with these cars retaining slightly more value. BEVs from lower segments with smaller list prices and lower ranges have been impacted more by the environmental bonus and the social leasing scheme. Upper segments have not yet been affected by the fiscal advantages for fleets. Those vehicles will come to the used-car market in early 2028. ‘BEVs continued to struggle, spending 84 days on average in stock, compared with the overall market average of 66. The powertrain also retained 35.6% of its new car list price after 36 months and 60,000km in March. This was compared to the overall market’s 50.7%,’ Percier outlined. Increased used-car demand in Germany Used‑car demand in Germany increased again in March following a strong rebound in February. The SVI rose by 28.8% month on month. Demand remained well above last year’s level, with the SVI 32.4% higher year on year, indicating a stronger market than in early 2025. ‘Supply conditions also continued to stabilise,’ said Madas. ‘The AMVI was up slightly by 0.9% month on month and 21.2% higher year on year. This confirms a further expansion of available stock and ongoing normalisation of used‑car supply.’ The average number of days needed to sell a used car hit 65.5 days, a 2.8‑day improvement month on month. However, this was 3.9 days longer than a year ago, signalling that despite improved turnover, the market remains slower. Looking at powertrain performance, BEVs were the fastest-selling technology, taking 58.8 days to leave forecourts. Then came PHEVs at 62.4 days. Diesel cars followed at 64.5 days, while HEVs took 66.4 days. Petrol-powered cars sold the slowest, at 68.6 days. RVs still under pressure RVs remained under pressure in the country, as %RVs fell to 46.5%. This was down 0.3pp month on month and 1.1pp year on year. Absolute trade RVs also decreased to €21,532, a 1.4% decline month on month, though still 1.1% higher year on year. ‘Meanwhile, list prices dipped to €46,345, down 0.6% from February, but remained 3.6% higher compared to a year ago. This continued a long‑term upward trend in new‑car pricing,’ Madas commented. By fuel type, petrol-powered cars continued to lead with a %RV of 48%, followed closely by diesel at 47.8% and HEVs at 47.2%. PHEVs held on to 43.1% of their value, while BEVs remained the lowest at 37.1%, maintaining the powertrain gap observed throughout 2025. Looking ahead, gradual downward pressure on %RVs is still expected as supply normalises further. By the end of 2026, %RVs are projected to decline by 1.6% compared with December 2025. Pressure is predicted to ease somewhat in 2027, with a smaller decline of 0.9% expected. This indicates ongoing RV strain, driven by recovering supply, normalising demand, and elevated list prices. Weaker Italian market? ‘The Italian used-car market continued to show signs of weakness in March. This confirmed a negative trend which has been persistent for several months,’ explained Marco Pasquetti, cluster head of forecasting for Spain and Italy. The SVI indicates overall demand stability. Levels were slightly lower than both February 2026 and March 2025, but the drops cannot be considered particularly significant. As for sales pace, the average days to sell stood at 59.1 days. This marks an increase of 1.7 days compared to the previous month, yet still 6.4 days fewer than in March 2025. Based on the latest figures, the outlook for the end of 2026 remains negative. Compared with 12 months ago %RVs were down. Levels fell from 48.8% in March 2025 to 45% a year later. PHEVs saw the most pronounced %RV drop, down 5.2pp to 39.1%. BEVs also saw value retention fall, down 2.7pp to 28.3%, confirming a general cooling in demand for electric powertrains. Spain regains momentum ‘After a more subdued January, the Spanish new-car market appears to have regained the momentum it ended 2025 with,’ said Ana Azofra, regional head of valuations and insights. ‘In February, 97,082 units were registered, representing a 7.5% year-on-year increase, confirming the market’s positive trend.’ Electric vehicles (EVs) continued to be the main driver of sales, with registrations increasing by 21.6% year on year. This meant BEVs and PHEVs took a 21.6% market share in February. This momentum is expected to increase once the regulatory framework of the new Auto+ Plan is announced. It will not only incentivise the purchase of BEVs and PHEVs but also the installation of home charging points. In addition, rising fuel prices are likely to further increase interest in EVs. Stable used-car market ‘Used‑car sales have not followed the same trend in the first few months of the year. The market currently appears more stable,’ said Azofra. ‘Transaction prices have remained broadly stable, having changed by approximately €10 since February’s report.’ Specifically, the average price of a typical three-year-old used car at 60,000km, traded between professionals, is just under €20,342. This resilience means prices remain 2.4% above the level recorded in March 2025. As recorded by the AMVI, a 6.8% increase in supply is helping support price stability. However, performance varied by powertrain. Petrol, diesel and HEV models have seen positive value retention, while BEVs and PHEVs recorded marginally negative adjustments. Month on month, the absolute RVs of PHEVs dipped by 0.6%, while BEVs experienced a larger fall of 2.4%. However, both powertrains saw levels remain well above those recorded in March 2025. Despite these minor adjustments, significant declines are not expected. This follows the improvement of a key-performance indicator in March: the number of days needed to sell a used car. The current average time stands at 78.8 days, ranging from 86.2 days for BEVs to just 69 days for full hybrids. As a result, the ranking of the fastest‑selling models in March was led by the Toyota RAV4. Leading the HEV category, it took only 13.2 days to sell. It was followed by the Hyundai Ioniq and Hyundai Kona, with 41.2 and 42.8 days, respectively. Switzerland sees demand improvement Used‑car demand in Switzerland continued to improve in March following a recovery in February. The SVI rose by 1.3% month on month. Compared with March 2025, this key-performance indicator for demand was 2.4% higher. This confirmed a growing trend after the disruption seen at the start of the year. Supply conditions also improved slightly. The AMVI was up 0.8% month on month and 3% year on year. This indicates that stock remains above last year’s levels, supporting broader market stability. Madas confirmed that: ‘%RVs continued to decline in March. The average %RV for a 36‑month‑old car at 60,000km dropped to 41.5%, representing a 0.2pp decline month on month and a 2.6pp decline year on year. There is persistent depreciation pressure in Switzerland, driven by rising list prices and more balanced supply and demand.’ HEVs retained the most value of any powertrain in March by far at 46.7%. Then came petrol-powered cars at 42.9%, diesel-powered models at 41.3% and PHEVs at 39.4%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing powertrain, holding only 35.5% of their original list price. Slower value descent forecast Absolute trade RVs increased slightly to CHF 26,716 (€29,036). This was up 0.9% compared with February, and 2.4% higher than a year ago. Rising list prices continue to support absolute used‑car values despite the downward movement in %RVs. List prices climbed to CHF 64,368, a 1.3% month‑on‑month increase and a strong 9% rise year on year. The average time needed to sell a used car stood at 77.8 days. This was a marginal improvement of 0.1 days month on month and a stronger 0.5‑day improvement year on year. This indicates that turnover is holding up reasonably well despite ongoing value pressure. BEVs sold fastest at 73.4 days, followed by petrol cars at 76.4 days and by HEVs at 78.2 days. This was followed by diesel cars at 79.7 days. PHEVs took the longest to leave forecourts at 88.8 days. ‘Looking ahead, %RVs are forecast to decrease further in the coming years, but at a slower pace,’ Madas outlined. ‘By the end of 2026, %RVs are expected to fall by 1.5% compared to December 2025. A further 0.5% drop is anticipated in 2027.’ UK feels plate-change effect ‘RVs in the UK continued to trend downwards in March, albeit marginally,’ said Jayson Whittington, regional head of valuations for the UK. ‘RVs presented as a percentage of retained list price after 36 months and 60,000km declined by 0.7pp compared with February.’ Petrol and PHEV values saw the biggest declines in the country, down by 0.6pp and 0.7pp, respectively. Meanwhile, BEVs bucked the downward trend with a 1.1pp rise. However, it is important to remember that the month’s plate-change effect can mask true market performance. In March, a car registered three years ago will display a 23 plate, yet in February, a three-year-old car would show a 72 plate. This plate distinction commands a higher value in the region of 3pp. So, without the plate-change effect, there would have been a greater decline compared to February. A direct comparison with March 2025 shows market-wide %RVs fell by 2.8pp. Across all powertrains, vehicles averaged 39.5 days to sell, improving by 6.5 days month on month. BEVs once again recorded the fastest turnaround at 33.9 days. Sales activity softened. The SVI dropped by 11.3% compared to February. Most fuel types experienced a significant reduction, except for BEVs, which recorded a 3.6% increase. The overall AMVI showed a marginal advert reduction of 1.1%, which indicates reasonable supply stability. The volume of BEVs increased this month by 13.6%, as dealers took advantage of the increasing popularity of the powertrain. Overall, March brought improved stock turnover but weaker RV performance in the UK. It will be interesting to monitor vehicle supply in the coming weeks. Part exchanges and lease de-fleets generated by March’s plate change will begin hitting retail forecourts.

Residual values (RVs), presented as a percentage of retained new-car list price (%RV), kept sliding in Europe during February. But is this descent slowing, and what comes next? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus unpacks the data with regional experts. The average retained value of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km dipped again across many European used-car markets. In February, Austria, Germany and Switzerland saw new lows compared with the last 12 months. Meanwhile, France and Spain saw lower value retention rates in January. At the start of 2026, Italy and the UK saw %RVs above rates recorded in December and August 2025, respectively. Both France and Spain saw a marginal month-on-month %RV improvement. Meanwhile, Austria, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and the UK recorded declines compared with January 2026. The downward trend is much more visible when comparing February 2026 with February 2025. All markets saw %RVs decline, with Italy performing the worst. Values dropped to 45.5%, down by 4.1 percentage points (pp) in the country. While this appears drastic, trade values are still undergoing a process of normalisation following inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared with 2021, all markets continue to see higher levels of value retention. Switzerland was the closest to its position five years ago, with values only 1.1pp higher. Three-year-old used cars in Germany continue to see higher levels, 4.5pp above where they were in 2021. %RVs are expected to keep falling across these markets in the next three years. Italy is the only exception, which is forecast to see a marginal increase by the end of 2028. By the same point, France and the UK are expected to see the largest %RV declines of the seven markets. Austria’s subdued market Austria’s sales‑volume index (SVI) for two‑to‑four‑year‑old passenger cars recovered significantly in February. After a traditionally weak January, the SVI increased by 52.9% month on month. However, the SVI remained down compared to February 2025, with the index dropping 7.6% year on year. The active‑market volume index (AMVI) also witnessed a slight bounce back. It rose by 1.4% month on month, while stock levels were 4% higher year on year. This indicates a well‑supplied market and a modest build‑up compared to 2025. ‘Turnover slowed again in February,’ stated Robert Madas, regional head of valuations. ‘The average time needed to sell a used car increased to 76.7 days. This marks a three‑day deterioration compared with January and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 days. This underlined subdued retail activity, despite improved sales volumes.’ Diesel models took the lead in turnover speed, taking an average of 71.5 days to sell. This was followed by petrol cars taking an average of 74.4 days to sell. Then came full hybrids (HEVs) at 78.3 and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 87.9 days. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) continued to take the longest time to sell at 88.7 days. RVs soften in February Looking at pricing, the average RV of a 36‑month‑old car at 60,000km softened in February. The average trade RV reached €22,623, down 0.6% month on month. %RVs in Austria declined to 47.1%, down 0.7 percentage points (pp) compared to January. Year on year, %RVs decreased by 1.4pp, reflecting continued downward pressure on used‑car values amid rising supply and normalising demand. List prices remained high, averaging €47,987 in February, a slight 0.8% increase month on month. HEVs retained the highest trade value at 50.2%, followed by petrol cars at 49.3%. Then came diesel models with 48% and PHEVs with 43.9%. BEVs held the lowest %RV once again, at 38.8%. However, this was a slight improvement of 0.2pp month on month. ‘Looking ahead, %RVs are expected to decline slightly in the next few years,’ said Madas. ‘In December 2026, a 0.6% year-on-year decline is forecast. A 0.7% decrease in 2027 is expected to follow. ‘This points to a slow but persistent downward %RV trend in the coming years. This is consistent with a rebalancing market environment and ongoing supply normalisation,’ he highlighted. France sees stability RVs continued to be stable in France during February. Some powertrains saw slight month-on-month increases, although this was mainly due to a value drop in January. However, February’s results were stable compared with December 2025. Petrol saw %RVs after 36 months and 60,000km increase compared with January. Yet they fell compared with December. Recent %RV declines for petrol have been minor as the fuel type holds its value better than other powertrains. ‘Many manufacturers offer petrol variants while diesel has become rarer,’ commented Ludovic Percier, senior RV analyst for France. ‘However, diesel has seen less impact, even managing to record %RV increases compared with January.’ HEVs saw stability in February, but their %RVs were below December’s results. This continues a declining value retention trend seen in recent months. This can be attributed to the increasing number of HEVs offered in France, most of which are from mainstream brands. These models do hold value as well as Toyota’s HEVs. Three of the top five fastest-selling HEVs came from the Japanese brand. Used HEVs are in demand, but carmakers cannot risk adding big price premiums at the expense of RVs. Supporting EV RVs Used BEVs and PHEVs took the longest time to sell in France. However, RVs can be supported by newer models with increased ranges. While %RVs increased month on month for both powertrains, they fell compared with December. PHEV demand and supply remain imbalanced. In previous years, many of these vehicles were sold to fleets on the back of fiscal advantages. They came with excessive new-car market list prices, explaining the lower RVs. Models offering an electric-only range of below 60km have been the most affected. Higher-priced BEVs with longer driving range have seen larger absolute RVs and more stable %RVs. Lower segments with lower list prices and smaller ranges have been impacted by the environmental bonus and social leasing scheme. ‘Meanwhile, upper segments have not yet been impacted by fiscal fleet advantages,’ Percier added. ‘Those vehicles will come to the used-car market in early 2028.’ BEVs spent 85.5 days in stock on average, compared with the market average of 67.2, which is also high. The Tesla Model 3 was still the quickest to sell, while the Model Y was the third-fastest-selling used BEV. They remain in demand as their new prices drop once again. Demand rebounds in Germany Used‑car demand in Germany rebounded significantly in February after the seasonal downturn seen at the start of the year. The SVI jumped to 143, representing a 43% month‑on‑month increase. Despite this strong recovery, the SVI was down 13.7% year-on-year, as demand remained below last year’s level. Supply conditions also improved. The AMVI rose slightly by 1.1% from January. Year on year, stock availability was 22.6% higher, confirming a continued and substantial rebuild of used‑car supply. ‘The average number of days needed to sell a used car increased to 68.3 days. This was a noticeable deterioration of 3.3 days month on month and year on year,’ highlighted Madas. Looking at powertrain performance, BEVs were the fastest-selling technology, taking 61.6 days to leave forecourts. Then came PHEVs at 62.4 days. HEVs followed at 63.2 days, while diesel-powered vehicles took 69.9 days to sell. Petrol-powered cars sold the slowest, at 70.9 days. Renewed pressure on RVs RVs came under renewed pressure in February. The average %RV of 36‑month‑old cars at 60,000km declined slightly to 46.8%. This was down 0.1pp month on month and 0.9pp year on year. In contrast, absolute trade values increased slightly to €21,855, a 1% improvement from January. This was supported by the continued rise in list prices, which climbed to €46,664. This was up 1.1% compared to January and up 4.2% year on year. By powertrain, petrol-powered cars continued to lead with a %RV of 48.3%, followed closely by diesel at 48.2% and HEVs at 47.5%. PHEVs held on to 44.1% of their value, while BEVs remained the lowest at 37.1%, maintaining the gap observed throughout 2025. Looking ahead, RVs are expected to remain under pressure, in line with previous forecasts. By the end of 2026, %RVs are projected to decline by 1.4% compared with December 2025. ‘Pressure is predicted to ease somewhat in 2027, with a smaller decline of 0.9% expected. This indicates ongoing RV strain, driven by recovering supply, normalising demand, and elevated list prices,’ Madas outlined. Values fall in Italy ‘As expected, RVs continued to decline in Italy during February, in line with the trend observed in 2025,’ said Marco Pasquetti, cluster head of forecasting for Spain and Italy. %RVs after 36 months and 60,000km stood at 45.5%. This corresponds to a decrease of 0.7pp compared to January and a drop of 4.1pp year on year. There are no signs of this trend reversing, with the downward trajectory likely to persist throughout 2026. By December, %RVs can be expected to decline by 6.2% overall. There were no surprises across the various powertrains. All of them saw proportionally consistent declines in line with the overall market trend. Diesel, although declining, remained the technology with the best retention of list price value at 50.1%. In terms of volume, it also continues to be in high demand on the used‑car market. This is likely due to signals from some manufacturers that they are considering reinvesting in these engines, including Stellantis. The average time required to sell a used vehicle on major online marketplaces improved compared to January 2026 and February 2025. In particular, the year-on-year improvement is notably positive for BEV and PHEV vehicles. If this trend continues, it could indicate a slowdown in the decline of RVs for these powertrains. Bad start for Spain’s used-car market New-car sales in Spain began 2026 with a slight increase of 1% compared to January 2025. Electric vehicles (EVs), including BEVs and PHEVs, showed strong momentum. Sales of these powertrains increased by nearly 50% as they represented over a fifth of the new-car market. By channel, private buyers and companies recorded significant declines. Only rental companies saw their registrations increase, up by 63.5%. These rent-a-car renewals have returned a significant volume of young used vehicles to the market. This made it the only channel to record positive results compared with January 2025. ‘Overall, the start of the year has not been good for used-car sales, which fell by 9%,’ noted Ana Azofra, head of valuations and insights for Spain. ‘BEVs and PHEVs continue to gain share, benefitting from growing demand for electrified alternatives,’ she added. ‘This increased interest is reflected in the evolution of average transaction prices, with increases across all electrified powertrains.’ Average absolute RVs of 36-month-old BEVs and PHEVs at 60,000km saw month-on-month increases of 5.3% and 8%, respectively. Only petrol vehicles suffered a slight month-on-month decrease in their average absolute RV, down 0.5%. Although the overall situation is positive, used cars saw a longer turnover rate compared with January 2026 and February 2025. The only exception was BEVs, which sold 13.3 days faster than 12 months ago. Despite this, the powertrain still took the longest time to sell. The model with the best rotation times in February was the Dacia Sandero, with an average rotation of 42.4 days. Then came the Volkswagen T-Roc with 51.2 days, and the Toyota Corolla with 53.5 days. Switzerland sees weaker RVs Used‑car demand in Switzerland made a good recovery in February. The SVI surged by 48.5% month on month. Despite this rebound, demand remained 2.1% lower year on year, indicating continued pressure compared to early 2025. Supply conditions softened slightly. The AMVI fell by 2.3% month on month but remained 5% above last year’s level. This confirms that stock availability is still higher than in early 2025 despite the temporary dip. ‘%RVs weakened in February,’ Madas commented. ‘The average %RV of a 36‑month‑old car at 60,000km dropped to 41.7%, down 0.8pp month on month and 2.9pp year on year. This underlines the ongoing depreciation pressure in the Swiss used‑car market.’ In absolute terms, trade RVs decreased slightly to CHF 26,501 (€29,062), a 0.9% month‑on‑month decline. Yet, this was still 0.9% higher year on year. List prices continued to rise, averaging CHF 63,610, representing a 1.2% increase month on month and an 8.1% rise year on year. This ongoing inflation in list prices helps support absolute used‑car values, even with falling %RVs. HEVs still on a high HEVs retained the most value of any powertrain in February by far at 46.7%. Then came petrol-powered cars at 43.2%, diesel-powered models at 41.5% and PHEVs at 39.7%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing technology, holding only 35.5% of their original list price. The average time to sell a used car increased marginally in February, rising to 77.9 days. This was 0.4 days slower month on month, but still a strong 4.3‑day improvement year on year. This reflects better turnover conditions than in early 2025. HEVs sold fastest at 69.4 days, followed by BEVs at 75 days. This was followed by diesel cars at 77.2 days and petrol-powered models at 78.6 days. PHEVs which took 82 days to leave forecourts. Looking ahead, %RVs are forecast to decrease further in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2026, %RVs are expected to fall by 1.4% compared to December 2025. A further 0.5% drop is anticipated in 2027. UK sees strong growth ‘The UK’s used-car market recorded strong growth in February 2026,’ commented Jayson Whittington, regional head of valuations for the UK. ‘Overall, there was a clear upswing in sales momentum, led by electrified powertrains. However, pricing pressures remained evident across most fuel types.’ All fuel types posted positive month-on-month SVI gains. On average, the metric was up by 25% across all powertrains, highlighting broad demand. BEVs led the market with a 29.8% rise, closely followed by PHEVs at 29.6%. HEVs recorded a 26.3% increase, reflecting strong consumer interest in electrified choices. Petrol models performed well with a 24.8% month-on-month increase, driven by continued affordability and availability. Diesel, while posting the lowest rise at 16.1%, still demonstrated strong growth for a fuel type facing long-term declines. Despite the uplift in retail activity, the overall time taken to sell a used vehicle increased by 2.7 days to 46 days. BEVs once again led the way, taking an average of 37.4 days to sell. They were supported by fast-turning models, including the Tesla Model Y at 22.6 days and the Volvo C40 at 23.7 days. %RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km were more mixed. Month on month, the overall %RVs slipped 0.8pp to 49.1%. The value retention of petrol-powered cars fell by 0.8pp as well, to 50.5%. Meanwhile, PHEV %RVs softened by 1.1pp to 46.2%. HEVs declined marginally by 0.2pp to 53.2%. BEVs saw the steepest drop, by 1.6pp to 35.2%. Diesel was the only segment to improve, rising by 1.7pp to 57.4%.

In Europe, new-car list prices continued to rise as consumer price indices (CPIs) stuck close to record levels. As affordability pressures increase, used-car demand could grow in 2026. Against this backdrop, which models are already selling quickly this year? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, investigates. Major European automotive markets entered 2026 following elevated CPI results in 2025. In December, the EU was 12 basis points (one basis point equals 0.01%) off a record high, Trading Economics reports. The UK’s Office for National Statistics saw its CPI index continue to climb compared with 2015. Switzerland stood out as an exception, with inflation remaining stable year-on-year in December, according to Trading Economics. Meanwhile, new-car list prices continued to climb compared to 12 months ago across all observed markets. Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK all recorded year-on-year increases in January. Spain saw the biggest new-car list price increase with 8.9%, followed by Austria at 8.4%. At the same time, major used-car markets have recorded growing sales volumes. As new-car prices and CPIs climb upwards, the used-car market may present a more affordable option for consumers. With this in mind, what used models are already selling quickly this year? Fastest-selling used cars in 2026 Across observed markets in January, the fastest-selling two-to-four-year-old used car was seen in Austria. The Audi Q3 took an average of just 27.7 days to leave forecourts. However, the average was recorded across just 15 units in the month. In the UK, the Tesla Model Y led the fastest-sellers chart. It posted an average turnover rate of 29.6 days from 458 units. The battery-electric vehicle (BEV) placed ahead of the MG ZS, which was the country’s fastest-selling used petrol car. The Tesla Model Y was also Switzerland’s fastest-selling two-to-four-year-old used car, taking 34.4 days to change hands. Yet, this was based on a much lower sales total of 25 units. In Italy, the Dacia Sandero topped the chart, shifting 229 units in an average of 33.3 days. It was also the country’s fastest-selling compressed natural gas (CNG) model. Its sibling, the Dacia Duster, secured second place overall while leading the diesel chart. Toyota Yaris’ speedy turnover Roughly half a day separated the top two fastest-selling models in France during January. The Toyota Yaris led the leaderboard, moving 1,360 units in an average of 38 days. The Hyundai Tucson trailed with a much smaller transaction total of 288 units, recording a turnaround rate of 38.6 days. Volvo’s XC40 was the fastest-selling model in Germany. The SUV took 39.6 days to leave dealer forecourts, with 242 sales recorded. Close behind was the Mercedes-Benz EQA with a 40.2-day turnover rate on average. In Spain, Toyota took four of the five fastest-selling model positions. The Corolla led the pack, moving 63 units in an average of 42.3 days. The C-HR came second, while the Yaris took third. This meant that out of all observed markets, the hatchback appeared in the top five fastest sellers table in three different countries. The only non-Toyota in Spain’s fastest-sellers list was the Peugeot 5008 in fourth. The model also topped the standalone diesel standings. Fifth went to the Toyota Yaris Cross. Seasonal effects in Austria ‘Austria’s sales-volume index (SVI) for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars weakened sharply in January due to seasonal effects. Compared to December, the SVI dropped by 28.7%, reflecting a pronounced seasonal slowdown at the start of the year,’ outlined Robert Madas, regional head of valuations. ‘Yet, the index declined only by 5.5% year on year. This underlined that demand was just a bit softer than a year ago, despite some stabilisation in prices,’ he commented. The active-market volume index (AMVI) also eased slightly month on month, falling by 1.2% compared to December. However, supply was 1.1% higher year on year. This indicated that stock levels remain relatively well balanced and slightly above last year’s level. The average time needed to sell a used car increased further in January, rising to 69.6 days. This represented an increase of around one day compared to December and a nearly three-day deterioration year on year. Compared to the beginning of 2025, this signalled slower turnover and weaker buyer activity. Among powertrains, full hybrids (HEVs) took the lead in turnover speed, taking an average of 62.7 days to sell. This was followed by diesel-powered cars, which took an average of 63.2 days to sell. Then came petrol-powered models at 69.6 days and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 71.8 days. BEVs showed significantly worse turnover speed compared to the previous month and one year prior. The technology continued to take the longest time to sell at 89.8 days. Short-term price support The residual value (RV) of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km, expressed as a percentage of original list price (%RV), was 47.8% in January. ‘This marked a 0.5 percentage-point (pp) increase compared to December. However, it also equated to a 0.4pp decline year on year. This suggests short-term price support despite a structurally softer market,’ highlighted Madas. In absolute terms, the absolute trade RV rose to €22,742.9. This was up 2.5% month on month and 7.4% higher than a year earlier. The increase was partly driven by higher list prices, which climbed to an average of €47,573. This was up 8.4% year on year. HEVs retained the highest trade value at 50.2%, followed by petrol cars at 49.9%. Then came diesel models with 48.6% and PHEVs with 45.4%. BEVs held the lowest %RV once again, at 38.6%. However, this was a slight improvement of 0.1pp month on month. Looking ahead, %RVs are expected to decline slightly in the next few years. In December 2026, a 0.7% decline compared to December 2025 is forecasted. A 0.6% decrease is expected to follow in 2027. Declining residual values in France %RVs decreased slightly in France during January, while list prices remained stable. Overall, used-car volumes are always lower in January than in December, with the former being a historically quiet month. Compared to December 2025, all powertrains took longer to sell on average. This was except for BEVs, which already took 90 days on average. Petrol-powered cars followed the general trend of the month, while the RVs of diesel-powered vehicles were slightly less impacted. Used diesel models are still in demand in France as the volume of new internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars shrinks. ‘HEV %RVs decreased year-on-year. This marked a departure from the recent trend over the last few months, where the technology held value relatively well. This is also linked to the increasing number of HEV models offered in France. Most of these new entrants are from mainstream brands,’ said Ludovic Percier, senior RV analyst for France. ‘These cars do not hold RVs as well as Toyota’s HEVs, with the carmaker being the pioneer of this technology. In fact, three of the top five fastest-selling HEVs came from Toyota,’ he noted. Overall, used HEVs are in demand in France, but carmakers cannot risk adding big price premiums to these models. This would jeopardise the powertrain’s RVs. Are used PHEVs struggling? PHEVs saw some worse results, with used-car buyers not accepting the powertrain’s higher prices. As a result, stock days increased compared to last year, reaching 71.2 days on average. ‘Many brands have seen list prices increase, as some PHEVs now feature longer ranges. In turn, this has impacted all PHEVs, with vehicles offering an electric-only range of below 60km most affected. PHEV demand and supply remain unbalanced. In previous years, many vehicles were sold to fleets on the back of fiscal advantages,’ said Percier. ‘However, private used-car buyers have no interest in paying such a high price for the technology. Year on year, the powertrain saw the SVI fall by 10%. Smaller and cheaper PHEVs in the C-SUV segment were the easiest to sell,’ he highlighted. At 35.4%, BEVs retained the lowest percentage of their original list price after 36 months and 60,000km. Fleet users have seen high tax rate increases for all vehicles except for BEVs. These models only experienced a very slight increase, provided that they met France’s environmental score criteria. This is helping keep the technology’s new-car volumes stable compared to last year, when social leasing was supporting volumes. This scheme will increase BEV volumes on the used car market in the future. Reinforced fiscal BEV advantages for fleets will also help to push registrations forward. Overall, the new and used BEV markets continue to be crowded. Conversely, ICE-powered models have faced heavier penalties and declining registrations since the beginning of 2025 in the new-car market. Alongside increasing all-electric volumes, these two trends will likely accelerate the flow of BEVs into an already oversupplied used-car market. Social leasing will only exacerbate this situation when it is reintroduced. Germany’s weakening used car demand Following a solid end to 2025, used-car demand in Germany weakened noticeably in January. This reflected a seasonal slowdown at the start of the year. The SVI fell sharply to 71.6, down 28.4% month on month. Yet, on a year-on-year basis, demand only declined by 1%. ‘In contrast, supply conditions continued to improve, with the AMVI rising by 2% month on month. Compared to January last year, the AMVI surged by 18.8%. This confirmed a sustained recovery in used-car stock availability, particularly within the core age brackets,’ stated Madas. The average number of days needed to sell a used car increased to 61.7 days in January. This marked around a one-day rise month on month and an increase of two days year on year. Benchmarked against the end of 2025, this signalled a slight slowdown in market liquidity. Tesla and Volvo’s fast-selling BEVs The average turnover speed of BEVs decreased slightly month on month. However, the technology was again the fastest-selling of any powertrain, taking just 55.3 days to leave forecourts. This was driven in part by bestsellers like the Tesla Model Y and the Volvo XC40. Then came PHEVs at 56.1 days. Diesel-powered cars followed at 61.9 days, while HEVs took 63.6 days to sell. Petrol-powered cars sold the slowest, at 64.7 days.  Elsewhere, RVs came under renewed pressure. %RVs declined to 46.9% on average, down 1.2pp month on month and 0.8pp year on year. However, in absolute terms, trade RVs increased marginally to €21,617.6, supported by rising list prices. This translated to a 0.2% rise month on month and a 2.3% uptick year on year. Petrol-powered cars led the market with a %RV of 48.3%, closely followed by diesel-powered models at 48.2%. HEVs were also not far behind, holding an average %RV of 47.9%. Meanwhile, PHEVs were a bit further back at 44%. BEV values decreased slightly and again retained the lowest %RVs at 36.8%. ‘Looking ahead, RVs are expected to remain under pressure, in line with previous forecasts. By the end of 2026, %RVs are projected to decline by 1.4% compared with December 2025 levels. Pressure is predicted to ease somewhat in 2027, with a smaller decline of 0.7% expected,’ forecasted Madas. Italy’s continued residual value drops In January, the dashboard displayed an increase in some metrics compared to December. Despite this, 2026 clearly carried on an RV trend observed at the end of 2025. 'The rise recorded in January is a recurring pattern in the Italian market. This should be interpreted mainly as a seasonal effect. For an accurate reading, it is essential to compare RVs with those of last January,’ outlined Marco Pasquetti, cluster head of forecasting for Spain and Italy. %RVs declined by 4pp year-on-year, corresponding to absolute values falling by €1,405 year on year. At this stage, the market moved exactly as expected, following a trajectory of progressive RV declines that are expected to continue throughout 2026. Current forecasts for the end of the year point to a decrease of around 5.2%. This trend is likely to persist into 2027 before stabilising by 2028. ‘January’s %RV decline was broadly uniform across all powertrains. This was except for HEVs and PHEVs, which both showed a more pronounced contraction of 5.2pp. In contrast, LPG‑powered vehicles displayed remarkable stability, with a very modest reduction of just 0.6pp,’ noted Pasquetti. BEVs continue to retain the lowest %RV of all powertrains. After three years and 60,000km, the powertrain retained only 29.5% of its original list price. This confirmed that the technology remains the most affected by current market dynamics. Used cars show strength in Spain Even in a month when operations tend to slow down, Spain started 2026 showing the same strength observed throughout 2025. After intense activity at the end of 2025, promotional pressure eased in January as prices continued to rise. This was especially true for diesel-powered models, which saw absolute RVs increase by 1.9% compared to December and 9.7% year on year. Overall, used-car demand remains high. HEVs were the only powertrain to not experience an increase in absolute trade RVs during January. Compared to December, this metric dropped by 0.5%. Used hybrids in high demand ‘However, this effect is more closely linked to changes in the data basket. It should not be seen as a genuine deterioration of HEVs in the used-car market. Instead, the decline was more of a representation of new brands and models entering the mix with weaker RV performance,’ explained Ana Azofra, head of valuations and insights for Spain. ‘In fact, HEVs remained the most in-demand technology in Spain, with a positive RV outlook in the years ahead. The powertrain’s average turnover rate was just under 55 days in January, around 19 days faster than the market average,’ she stated. Moreover, the average HEV selling pace was almost half the time it takes to sell a BEV. The all-electric technology experienced slightly higher sales and RV pressure at the start of the year. In line with current trends, three Toyota models topped the January ranking for the fastest turnover performance. This was the Toyota Corolla, the Toyota C-HR and the Toyota Yaris. Switzerland’s seasonal slowdown After a lacklustre finish to 2025, used-car demand in Switzerland weakened further in January. The SVI fell sharply by 33.3% month on month, reflecting a pronounced seasonal slowdown at the start of the year. Compared to January 2025, the SVI was 5.4% lower. This confirmed that demand remained under pressure despite some stabilisation seen late last year. In contrast, the AMVI improved in January. Supply increased by 4.6% compared to December, while the AMVI rose by 6.1% year on year. This indicated that stock availability improved notably and was clearly above last year’s level. ‘Meanwhile, %RVs showed a modest recovery month on month. The average %RV of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km stood at 42.5%. This was up 0.1pp compared to December,’ said Madas. ‘However, compared to January 2025, %RVs were 3.4pp lower, underlining the ongoing depreciation pressure in the Swiss used car market,’ he commented. Weaker used car pricing power In absolute terms, trade RVs increased to CHF 26,736, rising by 1.4% month on month. Year on year, however, values were 1.1% lower, reflecting weaker pricing power despite higher list prices. HEVs retained the most value of any powertrain in November by far at 47.1%. Then came petrol-powered cars at 44%, diesel-powered models at 42.3% and PHEVs at 40.2%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing powertrain. Despite a slight month-on-month recovery, the powertrain retained 36.2% of its original list price. The average number of days to sell a used car improved slightly in January. At 76.7 days, turnaround times shortened by around one day compared to December and improved significantly by nearly five days year on year. BEVs continued to improve and sold fastest at 69.8 days, driven by bestsellers like the Polestar 2 and Tesla Model Y. This was followed by petrol-powered models at 74.9 days and HEVs at 75 days. Then came PHEVs, which took 81.8 days to leave forecourts, followed by diesel-powered models at 84.2 days. Looking ahead, %RVs are forecast to decrease further in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2026, %RVs are expected to fall by 1.3% compared to December 2025. A further 0.4% drop is anticipated in 2027. UK’s deceptive residual value result ‘The average three-year-old car in the UK retained 49.9% of its original cost-new price in January 2026. This represented a slight month-on-month uplift of 0.4pp,’ highlighted Jayson Whittington, regional head of valuations for the UK. ‘However, this was the result of a new plate effect. A like-for-like comparison with January 2025 shows that values have declined by 2.8pp,’ he explained. All powertrains recorded modest increases over December. This was except for PHEVs, which saw a marginal decline of 0.2pp. Petrol-powered cars and HEVs both rose by 0.4pp, as values of diesel-powered vehicles increased by 1pp. Meanwhile, BEVs led the market with a notable 1.9-point improvement. Retail dynamics in January’s dashboard reflected typical seasonal trends. The average number of days it took dealers to sell a used car increased by nearly five days compared with December’s dashboard. ‘This is not unusual, as the 30 days measured in this report cover the festive period, where demand usually slows. However, a comparison with a year earlier shows that cars were sold around three days faster,’ stated Whittington. Used car sales volumes slip Sales volumes also slowed, with 10.7% fewer used cars sold. Diesel demand dropped by 8.1% while petrol-powered cars suffered a 11.2% fall. PHEVs saw the SVI decline by 12.6% and HEVs by 18.5%. BEVs were the only powertrain to record growth, albeit marginally, rising by 0.2%. ‘Overall, used-car supply is not expected to exceed demand throughout 2026. Consequently, RVs should remain broadly stable. A slight decline in average RVs of around 1% is forecast in December 2026 compared to 12 months prior,’ projected Whittington. ‘Meanwhile, BEVs continue to differ from the general market. Undoubtedly, used BEVs are increasing in popularity. They continue to be the fastest-selling powertrain, and quite clearly, dealers are feeling more comfortable stocking them,’ he commented. Compared to twelve months ago, the AMVI rose by 38.8%. However, BEV RVs are expected to fall slightly more than other powertrains. By the end of 2026, a year-on-year drop of 2% is forecasted.

Which macroeconomic factors influenced European used-car markets in 2025? What is the 2026 residual value (RV) outlook? How are trends developing in Eastern Europe? A new Autovista Group webinar answers these questions. RVs presented as a percentage of retained new-car list price (%RV) continued to fall through 2025. This followed a normalisation trend observed in the years after the COVID-19 pandemic, when values were greatly inflated. But what other influencing factors have been at play, and will they persist this year? How will this shape value retention over the rest of 2026? Will Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) see different %RV developments compared to Western Europe? These questions were answered in the live webinar, 2026 residual value outlook: Regional shifts and trends. During this session, Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus spoke with a panel of Autovista Group experts. This included Ana Azofra, regional head of valuations for Southwest Europe, Robert Madas, regional head of valuations for Central and Eastern Europe, and Ulmis Horchidan, cluster head of valuations for Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary. https://youtu.be/9qo7FdYPxnE?si=ANq2SauZtvtI6CYY&t=15 Macroeconomic outlook According to the OECD’s December outlook, global GDP growth has been resilient, up 3.2% in 2025. However, this is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 before improving again in 2027, up to 3.1%. China is the key contributor to growth, ahead of the US and the Euro area. Inflation in the EU is coming down slowly but remains above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. From a point of 2.1% in 2025, headline inflation is expected to fall to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. This left the consumer price index to reach an all-time high in October last year. Households had to spend more money, which effectively limits larger purchasing decisions. All of this means continued pressure on the automotive market. This is despite some cautious stabilisation, with demand showing positive signs. Used-car demand has also stabilised with no significant changes recorded in 2025 or expected in 2026. ‘If we look at new-car registrations, we had a slight increase compared to 2024 of approximately 1.5% overall. So, the steep declines of the post-COVID years are over, but it is not a spectacular recovery,’ Madas said. Meanwhile, tariff risks have eased in some areas, while becoming more challenging in others. For example, negotiations between China and Europe could result in minimum import prices for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). Increased emission target flexibility is expected in Europe from the Automotive Package, while electrification continues to progress. But new brands, regulations, and rising costs have increased profitability pressures. Residual value outlook RVs continued to fall in 2025. However, this was at a slower pace than in 2024. Only France and the UK saw marginal increases in the final quarter of last year, but values remain under pressure. The market has been undergoing normalisation following the RV inflation between 2021 and 2023. With used vehicles spending an increasing number of days in stock before sales, there are signs of market saturation. For two-to-four-year-old vehicles, this trend is observed across all powertrains. BEVs still take the longest amount of time to sell, followed by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). Price change development reveals price management and the desirability of vehicles. Electric vehicles (EVs), including BEVs and PHEVs, require more price management from dealers than other powertrains. So, what does all this mean for RVs in 2026? ‘Forecasts remain stable and on a path towards normalisation,’ said Azofra.’ This is because the most significant adjustments have already taken place over the past two years. This is the good news.’ RV outlooks for vehicles at 36 months and 60,000km have been maintained for 2026, with only minor adjustments. Spain is the only market which has seen forecasts improve thanks to its greater resilience in 2025. Austria, France, Spain and the UK can all be expected to see %RVs decline by 1% at most by the end of 2026. While Germany is not far off with a 1.4% decline forecast, Italy’s outlook is the most negative. The market saw a severe downturn in 2025 and is predicted to see a 5.2% decline this year. Understanding Eastern Europe Most economies in the CEE region have been growing more quickly than their Western counterparts. GDP has been elevated by integration in the single market, foreign direct investment, supply-chain participation, rising wages and EU funds. This catch-up effect will continue, just at a slower pace than in the 2000’s. There is reliance on used-car imports across the region, with Germany a primary source for the markets. This influences local pricing and RVs, but has a direct effect on older cars, aged 10 years and older. So, how have %RVs evolved? ‘We see different behaviour when analysing each country from the CEE region. For example, Poland had ample room for adjustments coming from the high values in 2022 caused by the supply crisis,’ said Horchidan. ‘Hungary and Slovakia recorded a steeper depreciation in the last two years, while Romania and the Czechia recovered quite fast after the peak in the pandemic once supply started to catch up with demand,’ he added. This year, the CEE %RV outlook is unchanged. Declines are expected to continue, just at a slightly more moderate pace. Croatia, Czechia, Slovenia and Romania are forecast to see %RVs fall by between 2% to 2.3%. Meanwhile, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia will see a lower impact, not exceeding 1.6%. Enjoyed 2026 residual value outlook: Regional shifts and trends? Then register for Autovista Group’s next webinar, Europe’s auto forecast 2026: Technology, policy, and EV adoption. It will take place on 1 April 2026 at 09:30 GMT, so make sure you sign up now.