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Event Webinar

Residual Value Outlook 2026: What’s Next for Europe’s Used Vehicle Markets?

For the last few years, used-car markets across Europe have been under pressure, and the second half of 2026 is shaping up to be just as unpredictable. However, in this webinar, you’ll get a clear, data-backed view of where residual values are heading, and why. What’s Driving Europe’s Residual Value Movements in the Second Half of the Year? Behind every shift in used-car pricing is a web of macroeconomic pressures, supply-demand imbalances, and powertrain-level dynamics that are constantly evolving. In 2026, that complexity has only deepened. Meanwhile, the UK used-car market, one of Europe’s largest and most distinctive, is following its own trajectory. In this session, our valuations experts will walk you through the latest residual value forecasts, the macro forces behind the numbers, and what it all means for vehicle value retention across the markets you operate in. Register for the webinar Join us on 16 July at 10:30 BST / 11:30 CEST, for a live session covering the latest used-car market forecasts, depreciation trends, and key industry questions for the second half of 2026. SIGN UP NOW Questions we will answer How are macroeconomic trends influencing the automotive market right now? What is happening in used-car markets as we head into the second half of 2026? What do the latest forecasts reveal, and what should you prepare for today? Meet our experts Hear directly from our specialists with hands-on experience across European used-car markets, residual value modelling, and automotive pricing forecasts Who This Webinar Is For This session is designed for automotive industry professionals whose work is directly shaped by used-car values, vehicle depreciation, and market pricing dynamics: Finance, insurance, and risk analysts Fleet, leasing, and residual value managers OEMs Pricing and product managers Portfolio and remarketing managers Industry executives and business analysts What You Will Gain A clear view of the European used-car market conditions: Understand depreciation pressures, supply dynamics, and demand signals determining vehicle value retention across key European markets. The latest residual value forecasts, straight from the source: Get the most up-to-date RV projections and used-car pricing outlook, explained by the experts. A focused look at the UK used-car market: Dig into one of Europe’s largest and most unique automotive markets, its depreciation trends, pricing dynamics, and what they signal for the broader region. The market will remain uncertain for some. Yet, by attending this webinar, you can gain a sharper understanding of the forces shaping residual values and used-car price movements in the second half of 2026, and what they mean for the decisions you’re making right now. Got questions? We’ll answer them live Submit your questions to [email protected], and if we don’t get to them on the day, one of our experts will follow up directly. Register now, and if you miss the live session, a recording of the webinar will be available.

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News

The Automotive Update: Contrasting fortunes for Europe’s major new-car markets

How have Europe’s big-five new-car markets fared in the first quarter of 2026? Which country led the way? How are the different powertrain types performing? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry explores the results in the Automotive Update podcast. In this episode, Autovista24 reviews the performances of Europe’s ‘big-five’ new-car markets. Spanning Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain, which countries saw registration improvements, and which ones faced declines? Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. Mixed quarter for German new-car market Germany’s new-car market, the biggest in Europe, had a mixed first quarter. Deliveries improved by 5.2%, according to the KBA. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) recorded significant year-on-year growth from January to March, accounting for 22.8% of overall registrations. This was higher than petrol’s market share. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) posted a 19.3% rise compared to the first quarter of 2025. Hybrid volumes, including mild and full versions, took a dominant 29.9% market share. Meanwhile, petrol and diesel volumes dropped year on year between January and March. UK new-car market growth In the UK, registrations increased by 5.9% year on year in the first quarter, according to the SMMT. BEV registrations in the country grew by 14.5% year on year between January and March. The technology made up 22.4% of all volumes. PHEVs enjoyed a surge in sales, while full hybrids recorded modest growth. Petrol deliveries, including mild hybrid sales, fell by 3.5% but still held a dominant market share in the first quarter. Diesel saw a 9.8% fall in volumes year on year. BEVs provide hope in France France’s new-car market was down by 2.1% between January and March, according to AAA Data. BEVs enjoyed a 50.4% delivery increase in the first quarter. BEVs held a 27.9% market share between January and March, the highest out of Europe’s big five new-car markets. Hybrid registrations, including full and mild versions, achieved a dominant 47.3% market share. Conversely, PHEVs recorded eight fewer registrations in the first quarter of 2026. Petrol suffered a 40.3% year-on-year delivery decline between January and March. In a similar vein, diesel volumes dropped by 44.5%. Italy’s new-car market shows strength Italy's new-car market recorded a 9.2% year-on-year improvement in the first quarter, according to ANFIA. It was the best-performing market, in terms of growth, in the European big five. Plug-in hybrids were the country’s best-performing powertrain in terms of percentage growth. Volumes rose by 110.1% between January and March compared to the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, BEV achieved a 65.7% increase year on year. Hybrids continued to dominate the market. They made up over half of deliveries in the first quarter, according to Autovista24 calculations. Petrol volumes fell by 18.6% year on year. Diesel registrations plummeted 23.6% between January and March. PHEV volumes soar in Spain In Spain, new-car registrations climbed by 7.6% in the first quarter, according to ANFAC. PHEVs were the standout performer in the country. Deliveries soared 74% compared to the first quarter of 2025, based on Autovista24 analysis. The technology proved more popular than BEVs. Volumes of all-electric models improved by 41.6%. Hybrids, including full and mild versions, led the market. The technology took a 48% share between January and March, with deliveries increasing by 18.6% year on year. On the other hand, petrol and diesel registrations fell in the first quarter.

News

New-car registrations soar in Italy amid looming EV incentive issues

The new-car market in Italy remains on a high, as March ended the first quarter with another positive performance. But does split authority-decision making jeopardise the country’s electric vehicle (EV) market? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the figures. Following a difficult 2025, Italy’s new-car market has seen a strong first quarter of 2026. The period was rounded off by a 7.6% year-on-year increase in volumes during March. This is according to the latest data from industry body ANFIA. In total, 185,257 passenger cars were registered in the month. As March is traditionally a high-volume period for new-car deliveries in Italy, growth is important. The figures were the best for the third month of the year since 2019. An extra 13,028 units took to Italy’s roads compared with March 2025, according to Autovista24 calculations. In the first quarter, 484,577 new cars made their way to customers in Italy, an increase of 9.2%. Following a rollercoaster 2025, the strong start to this year will be encouraging for carmakers in the country. Italy embraces the BEV Italy’s new-car market was driven by EV registrations. Without deliveries of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), registrations would have fallen by 1.1% in March. BEVs registrations improved by 72.1% last month, with 16,121 units delivered. This equated to an additional 6,754 units compared to one year ago. The increase helped the powertrain overtake PHEVs in terms of volume and share for the first time this year. By the end of the month, BEVs held an 8.7% share of total registrations, an increase of 3.3 percentage points (pp). After three months of 2026, the BEV market was up 65.7% compared to the first quarter of 2025. In total, 38,084 units were delivered, translating to a market share of 7.9%, up 2.7pp year on year. The BEV market in Italy struggled in previous years. While numbers rose, their share of registrations was low. Although the current hold of the overall market is below that of Germany, the UK and France, it has expanded rapidly in 2026. Italy’s BEV performance this year also matches Spain’s surge in 2025. It was another country that held a low all-electric share compared to other major European new-car markets before volumes improved. Surging BEV volumes in Italy can be partially attributed to the implementation of incentives in the country. All the subsidies were claimed for within a day of their announcement. However, industry body UNRAE highlighted what it sees as issues with the scheme. Struggles ahead for EVs? ‘Urgent action is needed on the issue of incentives: the dealer network has advanced these funds out of its own pocket, exposing itself to liabilities running into millions of euros and incurring significant financial costs,’ commented Roberto Pietrantonio, president of UNRAE. ‘It is therefore essential to guarantee certain and rapid payment times, prioritising correctly processed applications, in order to safeguard the stability of the supply chain and strengthen the credibility of public measures,’ he continued. There may be other obstacles in the path of electrification. From 1 July, BEVs and hydrogen vehicles will need to pay an annual charge to enter Rome’s congestion-control zone. While the cost of €1,000 is around half that for internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, it still represents an additional cost for drivers. ‘This measure is difficult to comprehend in a country where the proportion of electric cars is still significantly lower than in the main European markets, where any revisions to incentives have only been made in the face of much higher levels of adoption,’ highlighted Pietrantonio. The fear is that localised interventions without wider government alignment, risk creating uncertainty for buyers. Fragmented measures, such as congestion charging, could end up slowing the transition to cleaner mobility, Pietrantonio warned. PHEVs remain popular While BEVs saw higher volumes than PHEVs, the latter experienced greater growth in March. With 15,805 deliveries, numbers were up by 100.7%. Market share also jumped, by 3.9pp, to 8.5% in the month. Within the first quarter of the year, PHEVs recorded a rise of 110.1%. With triple-digit growth in each month of the year so far, this amounts to 40,052 units, an improvement of 20,990 deliveries. The powertrain remained ahead of BEVs in the cumulative chart, with a share of 8.3%. This is a rise from the 4.3% PHEVs recorded during the first three months of 2025. UNRAE attributes this popularity to an increase in models being offered and corporate fringe benefits. The technology is forging ahead and helping to establish EVs in the marketplace. Combining BEV and PHEV registrations, EVs saw 31,926 deliveries in March, a rise of 85.2%, according to Autovista24 calculations. This gave the powertrain group a 17.2% market share, up by 7.2pp year on year. In the first quarter, 78,136 EV models made their way to customers, an increase of 85.8%. This equated to a 16.1% market share, up by 6.6pp compared to the first three months of 2025. Italy’s hybrid domination continues Hybrids, made up of full and mild versions, were the leading technology in Italy’s new-car market during March. As buyers and carmakers alike move away from petrol and diesel, they are increasingly turning to hybrid models. In the month, 93,241 units were delivered, a rise of 20.2%. According to Autovista24 calculations, this was an improvement of 15,674 units, 1,748 models more than the combined loss of ICE units. This meant that hybrids dominated the market in the month. The powertrain group secured 50.3% of total registrations, up by 5.3pp compared to the same period last year. The powertrain also dominated in the first quarter of 2026. With 249,430 units delivered, it was the only technology to break into six-digit figures. It ended the three-month period with a 51.5% market share, up 6.8pp. Its nearest challenger, petrol, was 31.7pp behind. Adding hybrids to EV registrations, the electrified powertrain group was dominant in March. Electrified models took a 67.6% share of all deliveries, up 12.6pp year on year. In total, 125,167 units took to Italian roads, a 32% rise. Between January and March, the electrified sector held a similar 67.6% share of the market. This was a 13.5pp rise, with volumes reaching 327,566 units. Diesel plunge continues in Italy Petrol and diesel powertrains continued their downward trend in Italy. The powertrain group suffered a combined drop of 21.7%, as 50,203 units were registered in the month. The ICE market was responsible for 27.1% of the country’s total, a drop of 10.1pp compared to March 2025. Diesel cars have proven more popular in Italy than in the other big five European markets. But with 12,747 registrations in March, their volumes fell 29.6% year on year. The powertrain held a 6.9% share, down 3.6pp on 12 months prior. Meanwhile, petrol registrations fell by 18.6%. The fuel type remained the second-biggest seller in Italy during the month. However, its 37,456-unit total was only good enough for a 20.2% market share. This was a fall of 6.5pp year on year. In the first quarter of 2026, ICE deliveries fell by 19.9%, with just 130,135 registrations. The group held 26.9% of the market, down 9.7pp. Broken down, diesel managed 34,089 deliveries, equating to a 23.6% decline. This gave the powertrain a 7% market share, down 3.1pp year on year. Petrol recorded 96,046 registrations in the three-month period, an 18.6% drop. This was good enough for a 19.8% hold of the country’s total, falling 6.8pp compared to the first quarter of 2025. Stellantis dominates the market According to ANFIA figures, Stellantis and the Renault-Nissan Alliance led the country’s new-car market in March. Stellantis celebrated the success of the Fiat Panda in its home market. It saw 11,117 registrations, more than double the Jeep Avenger in second. The model managed 5,085 deliveries and ended March just 63 units ahead of the Leapmotor T03 in third. The Fiat Grande Panda took fourth, while the Citroen C3 was sixth. Between the two sat the Dacia Sandero in fifth, leading a slew of models from the Renault-Nissan Alliance. In seventh was the Renault Clio, with the Nissan Qashqai following, and the Dacia Duster taking ninth. Rounding out the top 10 was the Toyota Aygo X. The result means the Fiat Panda extended its lead after the first quarter, with 37,010 registrations. The Jeep Avenger was the second-best-selling model in Italy, with 15,808 deliveries. Third was the Fiat Grande Panda, with 13,180 units.

News

BEVs provide return to growth in the French new-car market

After a difficult start to the year, the French new-car market returned to growth in spectacular fashion during March. Soaring battery-electric vehicle (BEV) volumes made this possible, but why did the technology see a significant increase? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, explores the figures. The new-car market in France returned to growth in March, marking the country’s first improvement since October 2025. According to the PFA, 173,634 units were registered in the month, an increase of 12.9% year on year. In part, the rise was boosted by an extra working day compared to March 2025. New-car purchases from individuals represented 46% of total volumes last month, with a 22% delivery increase, according to AAA Data. Within this sales channel, long-term leasing rose sharply. Deliveries to fleets suffered a 2% decline during March, while registrations associated with short-term rental companies climbed 19%. Despite this double-digit growth, the French new-car market recorded a 2.1% decline in the first quarter of 2026. According to AAA Data, 401,556 deliveries took place during this period, a loss of 8,528 units year on year. Similar to many major European new-car markets, the powertrain mix continues to shift towards electrification in France. BEV deliveries have soared, while hybrids are seeing more marginal year-on-year gains. But unlike the other big five markets, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) volumes have remained stagnant. This comes as both petrol and diesel registrations fell significantly. BEV growth provides lifeline BEV registrations soared 68.8% in March to 49,406 units, according to Autovista24 analysis. This growth provided a lifeline for the French new-car market. Without it, overall registrations would have fallen by 0.3% year on year. The figure presented the powertrain with a 28.5% share of overall new-car volumes, up 9.5 percentage points (pp) year on year. This was the largest market share of any in Europe’s big five automotive markets, reflecting a wider first-quarter trend. Behind the technology’s surging sales, many factors are having a positive impact on delivery volumes. ‘France’s strong increase in BEV registrations during March was mainly driven by the social leasing scheme. While the program reopened in late 2025, people who registered for the scheme are now taking delivery of their cars,’ outlined Ludovic Percier, senior residual value analyst for France. The scheme allows lower-income households to access BEVs through long-term rental contracts. These are provided at significantly reduced monthly costs, supported by the state. Monthly rental costs cannot exceed €200 excluding options, accessories and services. Some offers reach less than €140 per month. Factors assisting BEV demand ‘Other short and long-term factors have assisted demand. Since February 2025, BEVs have profited from a notable change to company-car taxation,’ Percier continued. ‘The technology faced a less severe increase in benefit-in-kind rates than any other powertrain. This makes them significantly more favourable compared to internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, strengthening their appeal in the fleet market. ‘Furthermore, rising fuel prices have improved the comparative total cost of ownership of BEVs since March. However, this effect is minimal and is more linked to the used-car market,’ he commented. AAA Data also pointed towards the country's purchase and leasing incentives as a factor that has helped boost BEV volumes. Known as the ‘electric passenger vehicle boost’, the subsidy provides funds of between €3,500 and €5,700 when buying an electric vehicle (EV). Additional bonuses are available for vehicles where the battery is manufactured in Europe. At the start of 2026, the French government also raised the income ceilings defining the categories of modest households. This move means more families are eligible for higher grant levels. The industry body also noted that discounts offered by some manufacturers are helping BEV demand. From January to March, BEVs took a 27.9% share of overall new-car registrations. This was up from 18.2% during the same period of 2025. The technology enjoyed a 50.4% delivery increase to 112,083 units, according to AAA Data. Stagnant PHEVs Conversely, PHEVs faced a 2.2% delivery decline in March to 8,108 units, according to Autovista24 analysis. The powertrain took a 4.7% market share last month, down by 0.7pp year on year. PHEV volumes during the first quarter of 2026 were stagnant. Just eight fewer registrations were recorded compared to the same period last year, according to AAA Data. A total of 19,584 units ensured a 4.9% share, up 0.1pp. Combining BEV and PHEV figures, the EV market in France had a positive start to the year. Volumes improved by 53.2% in March, with its share increasing by 8.7pp to 33.1%. A 39.9% year-on-year improvement was seen in the first quarter, with 131,667 registrations. This equated to a 32.8% share, up from 22.9%. No growth in sight for ICE Internal-combustion engines, including petrol and diesel-powered models, had a weak March, suffering a 25.4% slump in deliveries year on year. According to Autovista24 analysis, the powertrain group accounted for 16.9% of new-car volumes in the month, down 8.7pp. Diesel performed particularly poorly, with a 31.2% drop to 4,448 units. This translated to a 2.6% market share, down from 4.2%. This made it the least popular powertrain in the new-car market, behind even the ‘others’ category. This powertrain group includes liquefied petroleum gas models, natural gas vehicles and super-ethanol cars. Petrol endured a 24.2% drop in March to 24,908 registrations. The fuel type made up 14.3% of overall volumes, down 7.1pp year on year. This means its market share was roughly half that of BEVs. In March 2025, petrol was ahead of the all-electric technology by 2.4pp. From January to March, deliveries of ICE-powered cars fell by 41%. The powertrain grouping recorded 68,507 registrations, with its hold on the market loosening from 28.3% to 17.1%. Broken down, diesel deliveries declined by 44.5% year on year, according to Autovista24 analysis. Its 10,067-unit total translated to a 2.5% market share, down 1.9pp. Meanwhile, petrol posted a 40.3% slump to 58,440 registrations. The fuel type represented 14.6% of total new-car volumes, down from 23.9%. The shares of both petrol and diesel models were the lowest among the major EU markets in the first quarter. This may be a factor in France’s decline across the three-month period. Hybrid’s double-digit growth Hybrids, including full and mild versions, enjoyed a double-digit delivery improvement in March. The powertrain posted 80,709 registrations in the month, increasing by 14.2% year on year. This enabled a dominant 46.5% market share, up 0.6pp, according to Autovista24 analysis. Hybrids accounted for 47.3% of the new-car market in the first quarter, an increase of 2.4pp from the same period in 2025. However, its growth was more marginal, up 3.1% to 189,904 units, according to AAA Data. Adding hybrids to the EV total, the electrified market recorded strong results in both March and the first quarter. Deliveries grew by 27.7% last month, as the powertrain group’s share rose from 70.3% to 79.6%. In the first quarter, volumes increased by 15.5%, while the group’s share sat at 80.1%, up 12.2pp year on year. The ‘others’ category did not enjoy the same success as electrified models. The powertrain group suffered a 3.7% drop in volumes to 6,054 units in March, according to Autovista24 analysis. Its share subsequently fell from 4.1% to 3.5%. Its first quarter result was more severe, as volumes slumped by 26.6% to 11,478 units. The category captured 2.9% of the new-car market in this period, down 0.9pp year on year.

News

Electrified powertrains make important step in UK registration results

Electrified and internal-combustion engine (ICE) powertrains split the UK new-car market after the first quarter of the year. But after another month of improvement, is the country’s current growth sustainable? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the market. The UK’s new-car market posted its strongest March result since 2019, as the country’s plate-change period helped boost overall volumes. According to the latest data from the SMMT, 380,627 new cars made their way to customers last month. This was an increase of 6.6% compared to 2025, equating to an extra 23,524 units, according to Autovista24 analysis. March is one of two important months for the UK market, the other being September. During these times, new registration plates are released, making deliveries more attractive. In March, new ‘26’ plates were released, with ‘76’ plates due in September. In 2025, March was the strongest month of the year, accounting for 17.7% of the annual registrations total. With the SMMT highlighting that current geopolitical changes are likely to impact the market, the same pattern may occur in 2026. Across the first quarter of the year, UK registrations are up by 5.9%, with 614,854 units delivered to customers. This is an improvement of 34,352 passenger cars, according to Autovista24 calculations. Record results in the UK March was the best month on record for electrified vehicles, according to the SMMT. This category includes full hybrids (HEVs), battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). A total of 196,059 units were delivered in the month, a 23.1% increase year on year. Electrified volumes were also above ICE figures for the first time this year. The UK reports its ICE figures differently from other markets. Mild-hybrid powertrains are merged with their respective petrol and diesel counterparts, rather than being included with HEV figures. The electrified market overtook the petrol and diesel group for the first time in September last year. However, it slipped behind once again at the start of 2026. March’s strong result may be the start of a period of dominance for the powertrain group. After three months of the year, electrified passenger cars had overtaken ICE, thanks to their performance in March. With 307,652 registrations, the group was just 450 units ahead of the combined petrol and diesel performance. This was enough for a 50% market share. BEVs continue to improve BEVs were the second-best-selling powertrain type in the UK last month. With 86,120 deliveries, they made up 22.6% of the market. The figure was a record total for all-electric registrations, with volumes increasing 24.2% compared to March 2025. March also saw the first year-on-year improvement in BEV market share of 2026. The technology’s hold rose by 3.2 percentage points (pp) to 22.6%. However, this was some way behind the required share in the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. This is emphasised further by the powertrain’s performance in the first quarter of the year. Deliveries have improved by 14.5%, with 137,614 units taking to the road. However, the market share of 22.4%, while 1.7pp higher year-on-year, is 10.6pp below the mandated target. For 2026, vehicle manufacturers are required to ensure that 33% of their passenger cars registered in the UK are zero-emission models. Yet, the overall market has failed to meet the target in the first two years of the mandate. Calls for review into UK transition At the recent SMMT Electrified conference, chief executive Mike Hawes highlighted how the market had changed since the ZEV mandate was first proposed. At the start of 2026, battery costs were more than 30% higher than expected, according to the SMMT. Furthermore, the industry body said that industrial energy prices are around 80% above 2021 levels. Additionally, it also noted how public charging can cost over 140% more than five years ago. Moreover, the SMMT has also highlighted that the current geopolitical situation, which is impacting oil prices, may spark interest in electric vehicles (EVs). Yet with a risk of higher energy prices and supply-chain costs, the increased cost of living could undermine consumer confidence. These geopolitical changes have added urgency to the automotive market’s calls for a rapid review of the ZEV transition. The SMMT has pointed to other markets, which have amended their plans to reflect current market realities. While the UK government holds firm, however, carmakers are having to invest heavily in both development and discounting to meet ZEV mandate targets. ‘Delays to a review of the UK transition will put the country in an uncompetitive position, undermining consumer choice, investment and, ultimately, the pace of decarbonisation,’ the industry body said in a statement. PHEV popularity grows While the debate about the electric transition continues, the UK’s PHEV market has been gathering strength. March saw the powertrain continue its run of strong results, with a 46.9% improvement year on year. This equated to 15,856 more units, based on Autovista24 analysis. In total, 49,671 units made it to customers in the month, giving the technology a 13% market share. This is up by 3.5pp compared to a year prior. The PHEV market has been boosted by the popularity of the Jaecoo 7, which hit the country’s market in February 2025. The Chinese brand has been building momentum, and was the most popular model in March. With 10,064 units registered in the plate-change month, it accounted for 20.3% of total PHEV deliveries. In the first quarter, PHEVs have seen volumes increase by 46.5% compared to the same period in 2025. With 78,666 units, this offered the powertrain a 12.8% slice of the market, up 3.6pp. Again, the Jaecoo 7 has helped this growth, with 19.8% of the PHEV market. The SUV held second in the best-seller table, behind the Ford Puma. Combining PHEV and BEV figures, the EV market saw a 31.7% rise in March, with 135,791 units. This was enough for a 35.7% market share, a rise of 6.8pp year on year. After three months, EV figures had improved by 24.4%, with 216,280 deliveries. The powertrain group took a 35.2% hold of total registrations. ICE remains strong While electrified models continue to see volume increases, deliveries of petrol and diesel cars suffered in monthly registration figures. Despite this, petrol remained the dominant force in the UK market during March. The fuel type saw 165,997 units delivered to customers, a drop of 6.1% compared to the same month last year. Having seen a rare increase in volumes during February, this result was a return to a regular trend of decline. Yet the powertrain still held 43.6% of the market. While this was a drop of 5.9pp, petrol remained 21pp ahead of its nearest challenger, BEVs. Registrations of petrol-powered cars declined by 3.5% in the first quarter, with 276,689 units. Despite this, the technology still held 45% of the market, a 4.4pp drop. Diesel popularity continued to wane, with March seeing figures fall by 11.4% to 18,571 units. This was only good enough for a 4.9% share of the market, down from the 5.9% recorded a year prior. Between January and March, diesel deliveries totalled 30,513 units, down 9.8%, equating to a share of just 5%. Combining the powertrains, ICE registrations dropped 6.7% in the month with 184,568 units. This was good enough for a 48.5% share of total deliveries, falling behind the electrified market for the first time in 2026. This means that after the first quarter, both ICE and electrified groups shared a 50% hold of the UK new-car market. With 307,202 registrations, the combined petrol and diesel grouping suffered a 4.2% delivery decline year-on-year. HEV pulls ahead in UK hybrid race HEVs continued to be the third-best powertrain in the UK during March. Its 60,268 registrations were enough for a 7.3% increase compared to the same period last year. However, its 15.8% market share was up just 0.1pp compared to March 2025. After the first quarter, the powertrain has seen a 6.2% rise in volumes, with 91,372 deliveries. This was good enough for a 14.9% slice of overall new-car registrations. Yet with stronger growth for PHEVs and BEVs, the powertrain’s market share only rose by 0.1pp year on year. The unit gap between HEVs and PHEVs has risen, thanks to the better volume total in March for full hybrids. But with plug-in hybrids increasing in popularity, the technology could close the gap in the coming months.

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The Automotive Update: Market conditions impact 2026 new EV forecast

As oil and gas prices rise, what effect will this have on global light-vehicle sales? Will electric vehicles (EVs) be able to take advantage of recent geopolitical changes? Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker and special content editor Phil Curry explore the latest insights from Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, in the Automotive Update podcast. In this episode, the latest EV Volumes forecast is reviewed. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry provides insights from King, including a global EV market outlook alongside regional projections. Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. Global EV forecast downgraded With a quarter of 2026 having passed, the latest forecast from EV Volumes shows that growth in the global light-vehicle market will slow. Geopolitical developments mean deliveries could remain stable this year, while the share of EVs is expected to increase modestly. According to the latest data, combined sales of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles will increase by just 0.4% globally this year. This is down from the previous update, which assumed a 2.7% rise in volumes across 2026. With increased living costs and the rising price of oil and gas, household purchasing power is being eroded. Companies are also being forced to delay investments, amid uncertainty over how long energy prices will remain elevated. This means vehicle renewal is being placed further down the list of priorities. EVs, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are predicted to make up 24.7% of light-vehicle sales in 2026. This is down by 2.8pp compared to the previous forecast released at the end of 2025. In total, around 22.7 million electric models are expected to take to roads around the world. This would represent modest growth of just 5% year on year. This would outpace the projected overall light-vehicle growth in 2026. However, it would also mark a lower rise following the 21.9% gain in 2025. With governments in larger markets phasing out purchase incentives and tax breaks, a slowdown is likely this year. The EV share is forecast to increase to 27.4% next year, then rise to 31.8% by the end of 2028. By 2030, EV Volumes predicts that this global share will rise to 40.4%, before hitting 61.1% in 2035, and reaching 80.6% in 2040. Slowing market in Europe The European automotive market has faced turbulent times recently. LCV demand was particularly affected by trade frictions and tariffs in 2025, with the passenger-car market following suit. In addition, continued political uncertainty and rising debt levels curtailed demand in the continent. A wide range of geopolitical changes have caused Europe’s light-vehicle sales forecast for 2026 to be downgraded. EV Volumes believes that light-vehicle sales in Western and Central Europe will rise by a modest 0.1% this year, a drop of 1.6pp against the December 2025 forecast. At around 15.1 million units, this is far below the 18 million light vehicles registered in 2019. Moreover, it is not expected that the European market will return to that level before 2040. The market is projected to improve by 1.4% in 2027. This increase hinges on a complex mix of regulatory and economic factors. A similar rise is expected in 2028. More to come from EVs This year, the EV market is expected to continue expanding, as Germany reintroduces incentives, while Spain also pushes forward with its Auto+ Plan. Additionally, Chinese carmakers are strengthening their footprint on the continent, appealing especially in price-sensitive markets. EV sales are expected to grow 16.7% this year to 4.7 million units, taking a 31.3% share of all deliveries. BEV volumes are forecast to grow 18.4% year-on-year, accounting for 69% of EV sales in 2026. Meanwhile, PHEV sales are expected to increase by 13%. With new model launches, lower prices, and tightening EU emissions targets, EV volumes will continue to increase in the coming years. The market share of EVs will sit at 37.4% next year, rising to 43.8% in 2028. The EU’s Automotive Package, which introduces a revised CO2 reduction pathway and compliance mechanisms, has altered the EV Volumes forecast. Assuming its full implementation, EVs are expected to account for 57.3% of light-vehicle sales by 2030. This rises to 84.2% by 2035, and reaches 95.5% in 2040. These projections assume emissions balancing between 2030 and 2032 and continued alignment of national policies. Several markets are expected to maintain stricter targets. The UK is currently committed to a new-car petrol and diesel ban in 2030, with zero-emission only sales from 2035. EV popularity struggles in Northern America In the Northern American market, 2025 sales were affected by multiple factors. This included the impact of EV tax credits ending in the US and manufacturers' decisions to amend plans for all-electric models. With new global inflation pressures and continuing weak vehicle demand in the region, EV Volumes forecasts that overall light-vehicle sales will decline 1.9% this year. In total, 17.8 million vehicles will be sold. Deliveries of EVs are also expected to drop by 8.1% in 2026. This comes as Canada has recently shifted its EV strategy, removing the 100% import tariff on Chinese-made models. Additionally, 49,000 units are now allowed to enter the market under a new arrangement. At the same time, the Electric Vehicle Affordability Program has been introduced in 2026 in Canada. The country has also seen stricter emissions standards replace the former EV sales mandate. These require carmakers to meet progressively tighter fleet‑wide pollution limits. In the US, California is exploring a new EV incentive program to fill the policy gap after federal EV tax credits expired in 2025. Some consumers have also expressed growing interest in more affordable EV options, including Chinese models that remain unavailable due to trade barriers. The combined BEV and PHEV share is now expected to reach 8.9% in Northern America in 2026. EVs in the US are expected to take an 8.7% hold, compared to a 10.2% share in Canada. The Northern American EV share will rise modestly to 10.1% in 2027. This will be mostly supported by Canada and the rollout of more affordable EV models. Shares will increase to 18.9% in 2030, then reach 37.7% in 2035, before rising further to 57% in 2040. This is well below the predicted global EV share of over 80% in that year. Domestic focus for China China’s automotive market saw PHEVs struggle in 2025, while BEVs continued to prove popular. The country’s government is focused on boosting domestic consumption, with support directed towards state-owned manufacturers. Yet with the March 2026 OECD Interim Economic Outlook projecting 4.4% GDP growth in the country, EV Volumes has downgraded its forecast. New light-vehicle sales are now expected to reach 27 million units, a 1.3% rise year on year. As the country pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, many brands are continuing to launch PHEV and Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs). This comes as BEVs are regaining momentum in China, bolstered by discounting strategies. As such, BEVs are forecast to account for 62.9% of EV sales in 2026, increasing to around 70% in 2030. In total, EVs are forecast to represent 50.2% of all light-vehicle sales in 2026, a 0.8pp drop from their 2025 share. This is projected to rise to 72.1% in 2030, before achieving an 84.7% share in 2035. In 2040, the EV hold is expected to widen to 91.1%. Policy plans in non-Triad regions With the increase in global energy and oil prices, the March 2026 OECD Interim Economic Outlook projects slower growth for major non‑Triad automotive markets. This includes countries such as Brazil, South Korea, and India. Alongside this, persistent energy‑price pressures are weighing more heavily on demand. Therefore, the light-vehicle forecast for 2026 has been revised down to growth of 1.1%. With various countries and governments implementing regulations and aid for EVs, the share in this market grouping will rise. Currently, it is estimated that electric models will make up 8.9% of the market in 2026. This would be a 1.8pp improvement from 2025. However, budget constraints driven by economic concerns may limit future incentives and/or tax breaks. Additionally, several countries have introduced, or plan to implement, new tariffs on imported vehicles. The EV share in the non-Triad region is projected to reach 17% in 2030, before increasing to 41.8% in 2035, and 76.8% in 2040. This means the combined EV share of non-Triad markets would surpass Northern America in 2034.

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BEVs lead soaring sales of new cars in Germany

Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) recorded surging sales in Germany’s new-car market during March. Yet it was not the only powertrain to enjoy positive results, as overall registrations achieved double-digit growth. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker reviews the figures. After a sluggish start to 2026, the German new-car market bounced back in March. Registrations increased by 16% year on year to 294,161 units, according to the KBA. This marked the biggest delivery growth since April 2024 and the highest volume total since June 2024. Last month’s increase was powered by soaring BEV sales, while lower-than-usual internal-combustion engine (ICE) declines also influenced overall results. Across the first quarter, registrations improved by 5.2% to 699,404 units. This can be seen as a positive performance, following a decline in January and a marginal increase in February. ‘March 2026 demonstrated notable growth within Germany’s new-car market. Private registrations increased by 22.2% in March. Meanwhile, commercial registrations, which maintained a dominant market share of 65%, saw growth of 13%,’ commented Ina Gronemeyer, cluster head of valuations for Germany, Austria and Switzerland. ‘The SUV segment remains the leading category, recording a 29% increase and capturing a 37.1% market share,’ she added. Volkswagen’s contrasting fortunes in Germany Germany’s best-selling new-car brands saw varying results across the first quarter. Some inter-group battles remained, while Chinese brands continued to take a foothold in the market. Volkswagen (VW) suffered a 5.3% drop in registrations between January and March. Yet, it continued as Germany’s most popular new-car brand, with a 18.7% share. In contrast, Skoda, a VW Group brand, enjoyed a 24.6% year on year increase in the first quarter. It placed second in the best-sellers table, with an 8.9% share of overall deliveries. There were differing performances for other domestic carmakers. Mercedes-Benz endured a 2.4% delivery decline in third place, just 548 units ahead of BMW, which recorded an 8.1% improvement. Audi saw an uptick of 7.1% in fifth. This contrasted with fellow VW Group brand SEAT, which saw a 14.6% drop in sixth. Positive first quarter for Stellantis Stellantis brands Opel and Fiat had a positive first quarter. The former posted a registrations increase of 38.9% in seventh, as Fiat deliveries soared by 65.6% in 10th. In between the two marques came Ford and Hyundai. The US carmaker suffered a 7.4% decline in eighth, while Hyundai achieved a 16.5% improvement in ninth. Elsewhere, BYD continued its upward trajectory. It saw a 644.5% surge in registrations year on year, giving it a 1.3% market share. Leapmotor and Xpeng also saw deliveries soar by 370.7% and 179.4%, respectively. Although both recorded market shares of less than 1%. Tesla posted a higher share of 1.8% while achieving a triple-digit improvement of 160% year on year. Overall, non-domestic brands performed strongly across the first quarter, according to the VDIK. ‘Non-domestic manufacturers have once again significantly increased their market share compared to the previous year. This shows that the vehicles coming from these brands are technically innovative, attractive and meet the wishes of the customers,’ explained Imelda Labbé, VDIK president. ‘In the case of BEVs, non-domestic carmakers were also able to make noticeable gains,’ she noted. Soaring BEV market in Germany BEV registrations saw significant year-on-year growth in March. Volumes surged by 66.2% to 70,663 units, translating to a 24% market share. This was up 7.2 percentage points (pp) from March 2025. This was the biggest monthly increase and largest share since August 2023. However, that period saw a pull-forward effect, before subsidies for commercial BEV buyers ended in September 2023. From January to March, all-electric deliveries improved by 41.3% year on year. The technology accounted for 22.8% of overall new-car volumes, up 5.8pp from 12 months prior. The technology also ended the first quarter 0.1pp ahead of petrol in terms of market share. This meant BEVs were the second most popular powertrain in Germany’s new-car market during the first quarter of 2026. Smaller PHEV improvement Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) volumes recorded smaller improvements. Registrations rose by 13% in March to 29,996 units. After a strong 2025, this marked the powertrain’s lowest year-on-year increase since December 2024. Yet due to even greater growth from BEVs and hybrids, its market share fell by 0.3pp to 10.2%. This was PHEV's smallest slice of the market since June 2025. PHEVs posted a 19.3%* year on year improvement in the first quarter, with 76,114 registrations. The technology captured 10.9% of overall volumes, up from 9.6%. Combining BEV and PHEV figures, electric vehicle (EVs) saw a 45.7% increase in deliveries during March. The powertrain group made up 34.2% of total registrations, up 7pp year on year. EV growth reached 33.4% in the first quarter, with its market share going from 26.6% to 33.7%. Wait for EV incentives continues in Germany Behind the successful start for EVs in 2026, multiple factors may have helped to boost demand, including purchase incentives. The new scheme was announced at the start of the year, with retroactive applications eligible back to 1 January. Taxable household income and family size determine the amount of funding available for BEV, PHEV and extended-range electric vehicle purchases. Users will be able to apply for support online; however, the portal will not open until May. ‘The significant increase in private registrations may be attributed to the newly introduced EV incentives,’ Gronemeyer outlined. ‘However, it is premature to determine their long-term effectiveness, given the complexity and uncertainty surrounding application conditions. Challenging economic circumstances also make forecasting their effectiveness difficult,’ she projected. While many buyers will be willing to buy before the portal is opened, some may hold off until May. The ZDK believes this delay will limit the potential of EV growth. ‘People need planning security, and not a funding policy on demand. As long as the promise of EV incentives is not implemented, customers will react with reluctance to buy,’ explained Thomas Peckruhn, ZDK president. ‘For many interested parties in the income class addressed by the incentives, it is a central component of financing, especially for the direct payment of special leasing instalments.’ ‘Without clear guidelines, the desired impulse will fizzle out, and the hoped-for ramp-up of EVs will either not get going at all or will be significantly delayed,’ he commented. Fuelling EV demand Rising fuel prices may also be affecting EV demand, with the total cost of ownership (TCO) increasing for ICE models. According to the ZDK, the energy costs per 100 kilometres for BEVs are currently significantly lower than those for ICE vehicles. ‘The increased fuel prices play a role in the purchase of EVs, but it remains to be seen whether this will lead to more sales. Vehicle decisions are planned for the long-term, whereas short-term price signals at the petrol station only have a limited impact. So, clear funding rules and reliable framework conditions are crucial,’ outlined Peckruhn. ‘If energy prices remain at an elevated level and at the same time the eligibility criteria and the application procedure for EV incentives are defined clearly, transparently and reliably, then there is a good chance of a noticeable revival of private demand for EVs in the coming quarters,’ he forecasted. Hybrid growth in Germany Hybrids, including full and mild hybrids, achieved a 17.4% uptick in deliveries during March. This marked its strongest monthly growth since December 2024, with a total of 87,850 units. It also ensured a 0.3pp increase in share to 29.9%, making it the most popular powertrain in Germany’s new-car market. Between January and March, hybrid volumes improved by 7.4%, with 206,566 units. This ensured a dominant 29.5% share, up 0.6pp year on year. Adding hybrids to the EV total, electrified deliveries increased by 31% in March. This gave the powertrain group a controlling 64.1% market share. Electrified volumes improved by 19.9% in the first quarter, with a slightly lower share of 63.2% compared to March alone. Can diesel recover? While diesel deliveries continued to decline last month, its performance was surprisingly encouraging. It saw registrations drop by just 0.6%, the fuel type’s best year-on-year result since its 3.7% growth in October 2024. However, its 37,664-unit total was only enough for a 12.8% market share, down 2.1pp year on year. Things looked slightly bleaker for diesel in the first quarter. Deliveries fell by 6.5% between January and March to 96,311 units, while its share went from 15.5% to 13.8%. Petrol suffered steeper declines in both March and the first three months of 2026. The fuel type saw a 4.9% slump to 66,959 units, as its hold loosened by 5pp to 22.8%. However, this did mark its best performance since its 3.7% growth in October 2024. In the first quarter, petrol volumes dropped by 16.1% to 159,058 units. It represented 22.7% of overall registrations, down from 28.5%. Combining petrol and diesel figures, the ICE market endured a 3.4% drop in March, as its market share fell from 42.7% to 35.6%. First quarter deliveries were down by 12.7%, while the powertrain group’s hold slipped by 7.5pp to 36.5%. * Editor's note: This article has been corrected since publication, with PHEV year-on-year growth in the first quarter 19.3%, not 41.3% as previously stated.

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Spain sees another month of high new-car market growth

The Spanish new-car market continues to impress, with genuine growth across the first quarter of the year. But as the country waits for new incentives, how are powertrains performing? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the market. Spain’s new-car market continued its upward trajectory in March, with registrations increasing once again. Last month, 130,340 new passenger models took to the country’s roads, according to ANFAC. This marked an increase of 11.7% compared to the same month in 2025. Heading into this year, Spain had a lot of expectations placed upon it. This was because it saw the greatest year-on-year growth out of Europe’s ‘big five’ automotive markets in 2025. This includes Germany, the UK, France and Italy. However, some of the country’s performances in the first part of 2025 were based on inflated and unnatural market growth. This included vehicle replacements after severe storms and flooding in 2024. Yet deliveries continue to power ahead this year. ‘March once again demonstrates the strong state of the market. We surpassed 130,000 sales, a figure higher than the sales for the same month in 2019,’ highlighted Félix García, director of communications and marketing at ANFAC. ‘Even if we were to remove the impact of the DANA storm from the March 2025 sales figures, the growth would be even greater. This makes us optimistic for the end of the year. If this trend continues, we would be at around 1.2 million sales for the year’ The strong results are even more impressive considering the confusion around the country’s electric vehicle (EV) incentives programme. The previous MOVES III scheme ended in December 2025, according to RACE. It is being replaced by the Auto+ programme under the Auto 2030 Plan, effective from January 2026, according to Spain’s Ministry of Industry and Tourism. While €400 million in funding has already been allocated, the scheme is yet to be implemented. So, drivers are buying EVs ahead of applying for retroactive funding. Despite the confusion surrounding EV incentives, March was the third consecutive month of overall new-car registrations improvement in Spain. The result means that after the first quarter of the year, 300,513 new cars have made their way to owners, a rise of 7.6%. BEVs drive market in Spain While buyers await the implementation of Spain’s new incentives, the impact on the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market has been slight. In March, 11,861 new all-electric models made it to the country’s roads, a rise of 46.4% year on year. This was the best increase of 2026 so far, although only up on February’s improvement by one percentage point (pp). The result gave BEVs a 9.1% market share, increasing by 2.2pp compared to March 2025, according to Autovista24 calculations. The run of strong double-digit increases in the Spanish BEV market suggests there is still an appetite for all-electric models. Buyers can purchase now and retroactively apply for subsidies, and this seems enough to keep the market momentum moving. Across the first quarter of 2026, BEV deliveries increased by 41.6%, with 27,223* units making their way to customers. This translated to a 9.1% market share, an increase of 2.2pp year on year. The implementation of the Auto 2030 plan could trigger a short-term increase in BEV deliveries. This happened in early 2025, when Spain reinstated the previous MOVES III scheme. However, just like in 2026, the government extended the programme with retroactive eligibility. This helped to sustain demand that had already been building amid uncertainty over incentive continuity. PHEVs continue to impress Spain’s standout performance, in terms of volume growth, once again went to plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). With a 77.5% increase compared to March 2025, the 14,859 units recorded was the powertrain’s best total of the quarter. This represented an 11.4% share of total deliveries, a rise of 4.2pp, according to Autovista24 calculations. PHEVs have proven to be a popular choice in Spain. Deliveries continue to grow, as does the powertrain’s market share. The technology was the third most popular in March, after hybrid and petrol engines, while remaining ahead of BEVs. After three months of the year, PHEV registrations were up 74%, as 35,693 units left dealerships. This has given the powertrain 11.9% of the market, up 4.6pp compared to the first quarter of 2025. Combining BEV and PHEV deliveries, the EV market saw registrations rise by 62.2% in March, with 26,720 deliveries. This was good enough for a 20.5% market share. In the first quarter, the group saw volumes improve by 58.3% with 62,916 units. This presented EVs with a 20.9% market share, according to Autovista24 analysis. Hybrids rule in Spain Meanwhile, the hybrid market, made up of full and mild hybrid powertrains, continues to lead. In March, it was responsible for 47.5% of total registrations, a rise of 5.4pp year on year. In the month, 61,938 units were handed over to customers, a rise of 26.2%. This was the best performance of the year for the technology in terms of volume and growth. Between January and March, hybrid volumes grew by 18.6%, with 144,126 models delivered. This gave the powertrain a 48% hold of the market total, up 4.5pp year on year. Adding hybrids to the EV market, total electrified registrations totalled 88,657 units in March. This equated to a rise of 35.2% compared to the same period last year. After three months, electrified registrations totalled 207,041 units, an increase of 28.4%, according to Autovista24 calculations. Petrol declines continue While electrified registrations soared, March saw another month of declines for internal combustion engine (ICE) models. Petrol deliveries fell by 14.9% in the month, with 32,728 units delivered. This was the smallest percentage decrease of the first quarter, but still represented 5,738 fewer models, according to Autovista24 calculations. Despite the decline, the fuel type was still the second-best choice in the country, with a 25.1% market share. This alone was 4.6pp ahead of the combined EV market. In the first quarter, petrol registrations fell by 18.2%, with 71,794 deliveries. This was still good enough for a 23.9% market share, according to Autovista24 calculations. Yet the steep declines across the three-month period meant this share fell by 7.5pp. Meanwhile, diesel deliveries dropped 23.6% in March, although this was on a smaller volume of 4,705 registrations. The fuel type recorded its lowest market share in 2026, with 3.6%. This was down 1.7pp year on year. In the first quarter, diesel volumes were down 26.7%, with 11,931 registrations. The powertrain took a 4% share of the total volume in the period, a drop of 1.8pp. ICE gap closes in Spain Combining petrol and diesel, the ICE market struggled in March with a 16.1% fall, as 37,434 units made their way to customers. The technology recorded a 28.7% hold of the monthly total. However, this marked a drop of 9.5pp year on year, according to Autovista24 analysis. This share was 8.2pp higher than that of EVs. While there is a distance between the two powertrain groups, this gap has dropped from 24.1pp recorded in the third month of 2025. In the first three months of 2026, ICE registrations fell by 19.5%, with 83,726 combined deliveries. The technology’s share of 27.9% was 9.3pp down year on year. However, ICE was still ahead of EVs by 7pp. This gap fell from 23pp recorded after three months of 2025. An older fleet While the country waits for the Auto 2030 Plan to be implemented, there may be a natural push towards electrification. High oil prices are causing increased fuel costs in much of Europe, and Spain is no exception. This could impact the market. The country’s car parc is predominantly made up of older vehicles, which are less fuel-efficient. Should the situation continue, it could mean drivers look to swap their older models for newer ones. ‘What is already clearly having an impact is the increase in fuel prices, and it is affecting the weakest segment of the market. This is cars over 10 years old, which are less efficient and have higher running costs,’ commented Raúl Morales, communications director of dealership group FACONAUTO. ‘In fact, we estimate that if this situation continues over the next 12 months, these vehicles will face an additional fuel cost of around €4 billion,’ he outlined. Meanwhile, Spain’s Sustainable Mobility Law entered into force in December 2025, as reported by DLA Piper. This establishes a broad framework to promote low-emission transport. ‘Decarbonising is not just about electrification. Considering the age of the vehicle fleet, which has already reached 14.6 years, there is an urgent need to complement the demand-boosting strategy with the development of the national renewal plan,’ said Tania Puche, communications director at GANVAM. ‘This was contemplated in the Sustainable Mobility Law, which is already a month behind schedule,’ she concluded. *Editor's note: This article has been corrected since publication, with the number of BEVs registered in the first quarter 27,223, not 27,273 as previously stated.

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The Automotive Update: Hope for Europe’s new and used-car markets?

How will new-car markets transform over the course of 2026? Plus, what is happening with used-car supply and demand in Europe? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus finds out in the latest Automotive Update podcast. In this episode, Autovista24 reviews the latest JD Power webinar, which explored Europe’s new-car outlook. Plus, a look into the latest residual value (RV) trends in the continent’s used-car market. Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. Outlook for European automotive markets This week, JD Power hosted its latest webinar: Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption. The session covered Europe’s new-car market outlook from 2026 to 2040 across multiple powertrains. Panellists also delved into the bloc’s diverging electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the factors behind it. Plus, the webinar reviewed upcoming technologies and emerging brands expanding across the continent. Attendees were asked how much they thought Europe’s new-car market would grow, or shrink, by the end of this year. 40% of respondents expected a year-on-year improvement between 0% and 2% compared to 2025. This matched the latest EV Volumes forecast, which projected a 0.2% increase in its March update. However, this was reduced from the 1.5% growth forecast in its December report. The March update also projected overall growth for European light-vehicle sales, which includes new cars and light-commercial vehicles. In 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% is forecast, down from 1.7% in the previous report. The panel also discussed varying EV adoption rates in the bloc. They identified key structural differences that are either limiting or assisting plug-in uptake. Furthermore, the experts showed how, in some instances, EVs are closing the price gap to internal-combustion engine models. This comes as the choice of small EVs on the new-car market continues to widen. Positivity for used-car markets? JD Power experts forecast year-on-year RV declines across European used-car markets in the latest Monthly Market Update. In Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK, values are expected to decline by the end of 2026. However, these drops are expected to be slight. A drop is also projected across all observed markets in 2027. This is the case in 2028 as well, except for Italy, with marginal growth forecasted. RVs became inflated during the COVID-19 pandemic when supply was low, but demand was high. As these drivers balanced out, values underwent a period of normalisation. In March 2026, the active-market volume index (AMVI) for 24-to-48-month-old used cars showed year-on-year growth in every observed market. When compared to February 2026, only the UK suffered a marginal downturn, with a slight 1.1% dip in supply. The sales-volume index (SVI) of 24-to-48-month-old cars also increased compared with March 2025. This trend occurred in six of the seven observed markets, except for Italy, which recorded a 1.1% decline. Month-on-month results were more mixed, as single-digit drops were recorded in France, Italy and the UK. If supply continues to outpace demand, RVs will face increased pressure, with more units available and fewer potential buyers.

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Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, policy and EV adoption

How have new uncertainties changed Europe’s automotive forecast? What is driving divergence in electric vehicle (EV) adoption between markets? Which new technologies and models could shake up current assumptions? A new JD Power webinar answers these questions. Over the past year, one trend has become increasingly apparent in Europe. The continent’s automotive industry is not converging toward a single EV future. Instead, localised pathways are becoming distinct and diverse. So, what does this mean in practical terms when planning for 2026? Have recent uncertainties downgraded outlooks? What factors are limiting markets with low EV adoption? How have stable policies enabled high plug-in uptake? Plus, could new technological developments reshape competitive dynamics? These questions were answered in the live webinar: Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, policy and EV adoption. During this session, Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker spoke with a panel of JD Power experts. This included Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director of professional services. Marco Pasquetti, cluster head of valuations for Spain and Italy, shared his insights as well. The panel also featured Idesbald Vannieuwenhuyze, cluster head of valuations for Belgium and the Netherlands, and Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes. https://youtu.be/ARpzkokwE7Y Forecast impacted by key developments Engelskirchen began the webinar by assessing the latest developments affecting Europe’s automotive industry. This included an assessment of the IMF World Economic Outlook January 2026 and the OECD Interim Outlook March 2026. Comparing these two reports, many regions saw a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts. This included the EU, the US and China. Meanwhile, EU zero-emission regulations could be softened after the European Commission presented the automotive package in December 2025. Key proposed revisions include a 90% reduction in vehicle CO2 tailpipe emissions compared with 2021 figures. A defined small EV category and a reduced 2030 CO2 emissions target for light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) are also being considered. Europe’s 2026 new-car forecast Taking all this into account, EV Volumes’ European light-vehicle sales outlook, combining new cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), was downgraded. The March 2026 update represented a loss of around 160,000 units compared to December 2025. A growth of 0.1% is now projected for 2026, down from a 1.7% improvement forecasted in the previous update. European new-car market sales are expected to increase by 0.2% this year. Meanwhile, new LCV volumes are forecast to fall by 0.5%. This was down from the 3.4% growth predicted in December 2025. The automotive package, if implemented, will also likely change Europe’s powertrain mix. King projected that the removal of the de facto internal-combustion engine (ICE) ban in 2035 would mean more hybrid development. This would also enable plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and extended-range electric vehicles from China to take more market share in Europe. King then commented that the UK’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets are becoming increasingly unachievable. While the policy is unchanged, it faces mounting industry pressure. He suggested that the UK ZEV mandate may eventually follow the EU’s proposed measures. Factors limiting EV adoption The panel then explored Europe’s uneven EV adoption rates. In Norway, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and PHEVs dominate the new-car market. The technologies accounted for over 50% of registrations in these countries between January and February 2026, according to ACEA. Conversely, Pasquetti outlined that EVs made up under 30% of deliveries in Spain, Italy and Poland. In some of these countries with lower adoption rates, key structural factors create friction for the EV transition. This includes a weak public charging infrastructure compared to the number of cars and reduced access to home charging. Pasquetti also highlighted that below-average purchasing power can significantly limit EV uptake. Factors driving EV adoption Vannieuwenhuyze showed how hidden drivers for EV uptake can be identified in markets with higher adoption levels. For example, a country’s culture and history can influence a transactional mindset among buyers. This means total cost of ownership (TCO) is prioritised, causing EV uptake to rise when running costs undercut ICE models. A higher exposure to environmental change can also translate into stronger public and political support for EVs. Furthermore, a stable natural resource base reduces exposure to energy price volatility, enabling more predictable EV adoption. Vannieuwenhuyze also noted that stable, predictable and long-term policy is key in the EV transition. Specifically, five stages of market maturity can be identified. This ranges from early incentives when uptake is low, to reducing subsidies and advantages after reaching mass-market adoption. Pasquetti explained how the type of EV incentive can have varying effects. Purchase incentives can generate strong short-term share spikes. However, they typically have little lasting impact. Conversely, taxation incentives can deliver a more durable, longer-term effect. Will new technologies rewrite forecasts? Alongside policies and country-specific differences, new technological developments and brands could reshape forecasts in Europe. This includes an influx of small EVs. Pasquetti projected that these models may benefit markets that favour smaller segments and have lower purchasing power, such as Italy. A growing availability of small EVs in these countries is expected to support broader EV adoption, including larger model segments. Elsewhere, Chinese brands are gaining market share in Europe. Engelskirchen showed how these carmakers have increased their hold in BEV and PHEV markets. In particular, they have been successful in countries such as Spain, Italy, Poland, and the UK. Finally, Pasquetti identified five key technologies that have the potential to influence future EV adoption. This included 800-volt platforms and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging. Enjoyed Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption? Then register for Autovista Group’s next webinar, Decoding the TCO Landscape: Fuel Volatility, Incentives, and Market Reality. It will take place on 28 May 2026 at 09:30 BST / 10:30 CEST, so sign up now.

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What is shaping Europe’s new-car forecast in 2026?

Europe’s new-car market is shifting. Emissions policy changes, uneven electric vehicle (EV) adoption, and contrasting carmaker strategies are revealing gaps. But how does this impact forecasts moving forward? A new outlook webinar will answer this question and more. Europe’s automotive industry stands at an inflection point.Growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, plus shifting national and regional policies, are impacting the market. This comes as EV adoption across the continent continues to diverge, driven by country-specific differences, plus new technologies and brands. But what effect does all this have on Europe’s new-car market forecast for 2026 and beyond? Does the European Commission’s new Automotive Package materially change expectations? Plus, what are the hidden factors of EV adoption causing contrasting trends across the bloc? To get answers to all these important questions and more, register now for Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption. This free online event will take place on 1 April 2026, at 9:30 BST / 10:30 CEST. register now Exploring Europe’s new-car forecast Attendees of the upcoming webinar will hear from leading European automotive experts. Identifying actionable trends that will shape the industry over the next 12 to 24 months, the event’s panel will include: Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director of professional services, JD Power (Europe) Marco Pasquetti, cluster head of valuations for Spain and Italy, JD Power (Europe) Idesbald Vannieuwenhuyze, cluster head of valuations for Belgium and the Netherlands, JD Power (Europe) Neil King, head of forecasting, EV Volumes, JD Power (Europe) Tom Hooker, journalist, Autovista24 The panel will discuss Europe’s new-car market outlook across multiple powertrains. The impact of the European Commission’s Automotive Package and the UK’s zero-emission vehicle mandate will also be examined. Furthermore, the webinar will explore the reasons behind Europe’s diverging EV adoption. The panel will evaluate what factors are limiting some countries and what is enabling others to forge ahead. This includes the strength of charging infrastructures, purchasing power, natural resource levels and EV running costs. The effect of upcoming model launches and new technologies on Europe’s new-car market will be reviewed too. This is important as these new developments may not have the same impact across all markets. Forecast for many sectors The insights delivered in the webinar will be valuable to a wide-ranging audience from across the automotive sector. This will include: OEMs, pricing and product managers Fleet, leasing, and residual value managers Finance, insurance, and risk analysts Portfolio and remarketing managers Industry executives and business analysts The online event will end with a question-and-answer session. Attendees will be able to submit queries directly to the panellists. Any questions not answered during the webinar will be addressed afterwards via email. Register now for: Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption. The free online event will take place on 1 April 2026 at 09:30 BST / 10:30 CET. Meanwhile, check out the previous webinar on what to expect from used-car markets this year. Catch up on Autovista24’s coverage and watch the full session: 2026 residual value outlook: Regional shifts and trends.

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The Automotive Update: The changing fortunes of Chinese and European EV markets

How did the Chinese and European electric vehicle (EV) markets perform at the start of 2026? Plus, which manufacturers are speeding up plug-in vehicle charging? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, presents the latest episode of the Automotive Update. In this episode, Autovista24 looks at the varying performances of the Chinese and European EV markets. Plus, how are carmakers speeding up EV charging? Also, an insight into which manufacturers are turning to robotics and AI for use in their production lines. Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. China sees EV struggles China’s EV market recorded a decline of 27.1% in January, according to the latest data from EV Volumes. Both the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sectors saw sales decline year on year. The results were reflected in the best-seller tables, where mainstream models struggled. The Xiaomi YU7 was the leading BEV in January, with a dominant display. It was some way ahead of the second-placed Nio ES8. The Tesla Model Y finished third. Meanwhile, the PHEV table saw BYD dominance slip away. Leading the charge was the Fang Chen Bao Tai 7, a BYD sub-brand and model. It was ahead of the Aito M7, while the BYD Song Pro finished third in the month. Europe’s EV market on a high Conversely, Europe’s EV sales grew, according to EV Volumes data. Sales were up 19.2% overall in January, with both BEVs and PHEVs seeing increases. PHEVs posted a 33.5% rise, while BEV deliveries increased by 12.7%. The Skoda Elroq was Europe’s best-selling BEV in January. It was followed by the combined results of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290, with the Tesla Model Y in third. In the PHEV market, two Chinese models led the way. The BYD Seal U came first, ahead of the Jaecoo J7. Both PHEVs were well ahead of the Volvo XC60 in third place. Even faster battery charging The Denza Z9GT, a model from BYD’s premium marque, is set to arrive in Europe later this year. It could enable quicker charging times of up to 12 minutes. According to Denza, the Z9GT delivers a 10% to 70% charge in only five minutes, and a 10% to 97% refill in just nine minutes. The carmaker also quoted a 20% to 97% recharge in 12 minutes, even in temperatures around -30°C. Meanwhile, Chery has revealed its all-solid-state battery that can achieve a range of over 1,500km, Electrek reported. A robotic future? Renault is using an AI-trained humanoid robot, called Calvin, to help it build cars. It was developed by French robotic firm Wandercraft. Renault plans to roll out a further 350 humanoid robots over the next 18 months, according to Auto Express. This comes as carmakers increasingly identify automation and robotics investment as a key response to rising costs and competitive pressures. A recent survey by ABB robotics revealed that 31% of vehicle manufacturers and suppliers felt this way.