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The Automotive Update: Hope for Europe’s new and used-car markets?

How will new-car markets transform over the course of 2026? Plus, what is happening with used-car supply and demand in Europe? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus finds out in the latest Automotive Update podcast. In this episode, Autovista24 reviews the latest JD Power webinar, which explored Europe’s new-car outlook. Plus, a look into the latest residual value (RV) trends in the continent’s used-car market. Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. Outlook for European automotive markets This week, JD Power hosted its latest webinar: Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption. The session covered Europe’s new-car market outlook from 2026 to 2040 across multiple powertrains. Panellists also delved into the bloc’s diverging electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the factors behind it. Plus, the webinar reviewed upcoming technologies and emerging brands expanding across the continent. Attendees were asked how much they thought Europe’s new-car market would grow, or shrink, by the end of this year. 40% of respondents expected a year-on-year improvement between 0% and 2% compared to 2025. This matched the latest EV Volumes forecast, which projected a 0.2% increase in its March update. However, this was reduced from the 1.5% growth forecast in its December report. The March update also projected overall growth for European light-vehicle sales, which includes new cars and light-commercial vehicles. In 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% is forecast, down from 1.7% in the previous report. The panel also discussed varying EV adoption rates in the bloc. They identified key structural differences that are either limiting or assisting plug-in uptake. Furthermore, the experts showed how, in some instances, EVs are closing the price gap to internal-combustion engine models. This comes as the choice of small EVs on the new-car market continues to widen. Positivity for used-car markets? JD Power experts forecast year-on-year RV declines across European used-car markets in the latest Monthly Market Update. In Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK, values are expected to decline by the end of 2026. However, these drops are expected to be slight. A drop is also projected across all observed markets in 2027. This is the case in 2028 as well, except for Italy, with marginal growth forecasted. RVs became inflated during the COVID-19 pandemic when supply was low, but demand was high. As these drivers balanced out, values underwent a period of normalisation. In March 2026, the active-market volume index (AMVI) for 24-to-48-month-old used cars showed year-on-year growth in every observed market. When compared to February 2026, only the UK suffered a marginal downturn, with a slight 1.1% dip in supply. The sales-volume index (SVI) of 24-to-48-month-old cars also increased compared with March 2025. This trend occurred in six of the seven observed markets, except for Italy, which recorded a 1.1% decline. Month-on-month results were more mixed, as single-digit drops were recorded in France, Italy and the UK. If supply continues to outpace demand, RVs will face increased pressure, with more units available and fewer potential buyers.
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Spain’s new-car market remains strong as new incentives take shape

February provided plenty of positives for Spain’s new-car market. But as the nation’s market continues to grow, is electrification progressing as planned? Autovista24 web editor James Roberts examines the latest numbers.  February saw a second consecutive month of growth for the buoyant Spanish new-car market. In total, 97,082 new vehicles took to the country’s roads, 6,755 more than 12 months prior. This ensured a 7.5% year-on-year increase, according to the latest ANFAC data. With only December 2025 blotting an unbroken streak of year-on-year gains for Spain’s new-car market, February resumed a familiar trend. Industry body ANFAC highlighted that all channels achieved growth in the month, particularly the rental sector, which saw a 22.6% uptick. ‘After a hesitant start in January, February is once again a positive month for vehicle sales,’ stated Félix García, director of communication and marketing at ANFAC.‘Last month, the rental car channel was the one that grew the most, accounting for almost one in five sales of passenger cars. It is a logical increase to renew the fleet for the Easter period. Without these sales, the growth of individuals and companies is flatter compared to February 2025.’ This ‘good pace,’ as highlighted by ANFAC, prevailed when assessing the first two months of 2026. Combined January and February totals amounted to 170,185 passenger cars. This ensured a unit upswing of 7,542 compared with the same period in 2025, a healthy 4.6% boost. Hybrids remain top new-car choice Hybrids, made up of both full and mild hybrid powertrains, remained the top seller in February. In total, 46,592 new hybrids joined Spain’s car parc in the month, according to ANFAC. This robust total returned a 17.1% year-on-year increase and a 48% market share. This was just 0.6 percentage points (pp) down on January’s record, suggesting hybrid popularity is not ebbing. It was even up by 3.9pp year on year. Spanning the opening two months of 2026, hybrid cars held a dominant 48.3% market share, up 3.7pp year on year. Across January and February, 82,189 new hybrids made their way to customers in Spain. Spain’s BEV market share issue Amid this preference for hybrids, ANFAC highlighted that EVs, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), continue to be a ‘key segment.’ However, is this consistently strong sector in danger of stagnating, especially when it comes to BEV uptake?   February saw 8,889 new BEVs take to Spain’s roads. This equated to a 45.4% volume increase, carving out a 9.2% market share, up 2.4pp. After two months of the year, the BEV market share stood at 9%, 2.2pp up year on year. This comes as volumes reached 15,361 units, establishing a 38.1% year-on-year upswing. One reason for new-BEV buying reticence could be uncertainty. Spain’s relatively successful trend of EV adoption had been enabled by a long-standing incentive framework, the MOVES plan. This was introduced in 2019, funded by the EU’s NextGenerationEU recovery funds, and managed in conjunction with Spain’s regional governments.  The issue with incentives The last iteration, MOVES III, came to an end on 31 December 2025. Its replacement, the Auto 2030 Plan (Auto+), announced at the beginning of December, aims to centralise and simplify EV incentives. It will mobilise up to €400 million in public and private investment between 2026 and 2030 to increase electrification in Spain. It will offer varying discounts on BEVs and PHEVs, spanning direct purchases, leasing and renting arrangements. The subsidies will be applied retroactively to vehicles purchased since 1 January in Spain. However, the government website has not yet confirmed publication. According to Carwow, Full implementation of the Auto 2030 Plan is not expected until at least May this year.  In late January, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business proposed amendments to the Auto 2030 Plan, according to La Tribuna. Addressing industry concerns, the change reportedly re-centres the scheme around cars manufactured within the EU. This would make the plan more closely aligned with the system used in France, as reported by electrive. One result of the amendments could be the discouragement of some models made in China from eligibility. This could bring additional uncertainty into the market. An added complication relates to Chinese carmakers investing in Spanish manufacturing, such as Chery and BYD. Spain’s need for clarity ‘Although the Auto+ plan has already been announced, and there are brands that have committed to bringing forward the discounts, there is no doubt that the official publication of clear and agile regulatory bases is essential to increase confidence,’ stated Tania Puche, GANVAM’s director of communication. Raúl Morales, communications director of FACONAUTO, added: ‘For another month, electrification has driven the market, once again exceeding 20% ​​market share in new registrations. This is partly due to the announcement of the retroactive application of the Auto+ Plan, which provides aid to electric vehicles. ‘What we need now is for the regulatory framework for this plan to be published as soon as possible, so that buyers continue to have certainty and electrification can continue to increase its registration numbers,’ he continued. Whatever the outcome, industry bodies are urging further clarity around electrification uptake measures to boost sales in the country. ‘It is urgent to reactivate the tax deduction in personal income tax for the purchase of electric vehicles and the bonus for the installation of charging points, measures that have been overturned in congress for the second time in two months,’ Puche stated. PHEVs still proving popular As BEV uptake looks to push through to new heights, PHEV popularity has helped lift Spain’s overall plug-in sector. Since a notable triple-digit percentage volume surge in May 2025, the powertrain has continued to sell well. In February, 12,092 new PHEVs left forecourts in Spain, equating to a 75.2% year-on-year increase. Across the first two months of this year, PHEVs have seen 20,832 registrations and a 71.6% volume lift. This has ensured a 12.2% market share, up 4.7pp year on year. This strong start to 2026 and the enduring appeal of the powertrain have boosted overall plug-in deliveries. Spanning January and February, combined BEV and PHEV registrations reached 36,193 units. This marked a significant year-on-year climb of 55.6%. This also brought some meaningful market share capture, with the powertrains accounting for 21.3% of overall registrations, up 7.2pp. The combination of electrified registrations, including hybrids, BEVs and PHEVs, took the dominant slice of the Spanish new-car market. Across the opening two months of 2026, a total of 118,382 new electrified vehicles were registered in the country. This 23.7% upswing ensured a market share of 69.6%, a new high, and a 10.7pp increase. Petrol remains a key player With many headlines surrounding EV volume growth, it is easy to ignore the prevailing appeal of petrol within Spain. At first glance, sales have taken a year-on-year nosedive. Fewer new petrol-powered options are available as the industry moves towards net-zero. However, when it comes to market share, the fuel type is clinging on in Spain. In February, 22,534 new petrol vehicles reached customers, a 19.5% year-on-year dip. Although this continued the trend of double-digit monthly declines, the reality is more nuanced. Combining January and February’s new-car registration totals, petrol accounted for 23% of the market, with 39,067 registrations. Although volumes were down 20.8% year on year, the fuel type commanded the second-highest market share after hybrids. Petrol was 14pp higher than BEVs, and 10.8pp above PHEVs. While petrol retained influence in Spain’s new-car market, diesel continued its descent. The fuel type saw just 7,226 new vehicles registered across January and February. This underlined a significant 28.6% year-on-year drop and a meagre 4.2% market share, down 2pp. Total internal-combustion engine (ICE) new-vehicle registrations, including petrol and diesel, totalled 46,293 in January and February. This provided a 27.2% market share, down 9.3pp year on year, but still 5.9pp above EVs. One of the big questions now is whether plug-in sales will overtake ICE volumes in Spain this year.
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How could Germany’s new EV incentives impact residual values?

Purchase incentives for new electric vehicles (EVs) have been announced in Germany. But how will they work, and what are the implications for the used-car market? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, discusses the topic with Autovista Group experts. For the first time since December 2023, government-funded EV incentives will become available in Germany. However, unlike previous subsidies, the new scheme will be income-dependent. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) are eligible for the incentives. The subsidy scheme comes as EVs recorded 49.6% registrations growth in 2025. This was a significant improvement from a 18.2% decline in 2024, the year after incentives ended. Funding applications can be submitted through an online portal, expected to open in May 2026. Incentives can be applied retroactively from 1 January 2026. A total of €3 billion has been allocated to the scheme. The government projects this will allow for around 800,000 vehicles to receive subsidies between 2026 and 2029. The incentive will be available for both buying and leasing applicable models, regardless of list price. All vehicles receiving the subsidy must be kept for at least 36 months. So, how is the announcement expected to affect Germany’s automotive market? Will it impact specific segments more than others? Could it influence residual values (RVs)? Scaling incentives The subsidy is expected to scale with taxable household income and family size. It is also dependent on the vehicle’s powertrain. For households with an annual income between €60,001 and €80,000, a BEV subsidy of up to €3,000 will be offered. This increases to €4,000 for households earning between €45,001 and €60,000. €5,000 will be made available for households with a yearly income of up to €45,000. BEV buyers can also benefit from an additional subsidy worth €500 per child, up to a total of €1,000. However, these amounts are lower for PHEVs. For example, those with a household income between €60,001 and €80,000 will only receive a base subsidy worth €1,500. Additionally, households with an income between €80,001 and €85,000 will only be allocated funds if they have at least one child. At least two children per household are required to receive subsidies if annual earnings sit between €85,001 and €90,000. Therefore, the full €6,000 support will only be available for households below a taxable income of €45,000, or €22,500 per person for couples. On top of this, they must have two children and be purchasing a BEV. This means that only a small share of German new‑car buyers will qualify for the maximum amount, especially in the BEV-relevant price classes.  Lower incomes not supported? ‘The new German incentive scheme is unlikely to support citizens with lower incomes,’ said Christian Schneider, director of valuations at Autovista Group. ‘Even if BEVs reach price parity with new internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, prices for all powertrains have been rising significantly. This means that most people from this income class cannot afford a new vehicle,’ he explained. ‘Additionally, this new scheme is creating pressure on BEV RVs. In turn, leasing rates will also not fully benefit from this incentive. ‘There would have been smarter ways to invest this money. A more effective implementation could increase electrification, stimulate new and used-car demand, and support a wider range of citizens. For example, the funds could have been used to invest in charging infrastructure or incentivise charging prices,’ commented Schneider. Incentives impact residual values Autovista Group experts forecast that the strongest negative RV impact from the incentives will be faced by BEVs. This forecast is accordingly adapted to experts’ observations of new-car sales and incentives. In December 2025, a decline of 1.9% in BEV RVs expressed as a percentage of retained list price (%RV) was predicted in 2026. This will be driven by two effects. First, the powertrain is projected to experience pressure on prices in the short term. As new-car list prices drop due to the incentives, this can lead to lower used-car prices as the market adjusts. Second, Autovista Group experts forecast that there may be an oversupply of BEVs in the medium term. Subsidised new registrations typically create a wave of used BEVs returning to the market simultaneously after two to four years. This can cause longer stock days and declining RVs when vehicles enter the used-car market. Some European countries with early, aggressive subsidies have already felt the impact of this trend. Additional BEV effects Vehicles in the €30,000 to €45,000 price band will likely be most affected by the subsidies. This price range includes many compact crossovers and other BEVs aimed at the mass market. In this bracket, Autovista Group experts project that the incentives will significantly alter price positioning. The scheme may also only provide a limited uplift to BEV demand. This is because households earning below €45,000 are unlikely buyers of new BEVs, or indeed any new car. Buyers in this demographic would be more likely to consider smaller or inexpensive models. Additionally, it is more likely that households in this income bracket will opt for used vehicles. Even then, they can be expected to choose older models. The reintroduction of state support may prompt OEMs and dealers to reconsider their discounting strategies. After the previous BEV subsidies expired in December 2023, discounts increased. In turn, this could further moderate the real purchase incentive felt by buyers. However, this may help regulate short-term pressure on BEV RVs. This is despite the powertrain likely being the most affected by the incentives. Other powertrains influenced? Autovista Group experts also project that PHEVs will see a slight RV impact. It will likely be more moderate than the effect on BEVs. This is because the technology will receive lower subsidies while holding a smaller market share. It also has a lower future oversupply risk than all-electric models. The ICE market, which includes petrol and diesel models, is forecast to see a limited but varied incentive impact. In the short term, young used ICE cars may see a slight downward pressure on RVs. This will be caused by BEVs becoming temporarily more competitive. In the medium-to-long term, structural supply shortages may appear in the used market. This could cause stable or even rising RVs for ICE models. Moreover, declining petrol and diesel registrations and tightening emissions rules could support ICE RVs structurally. Reduced model availability could also encourage this trend.
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How are Chinese companies entering the European automotive sector?

Currently, one of the major talking points in Europe’s automotive market is the entrance and expansion of Chinese companies. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker explores their plans and strategies in the region. A total of 116 exhibitors at this year’s IAA Mobility in Munich came from China. This was up from 70 in 2023, which in turn was more than double the figure in 2021. Chinese companies at the event ranged from high-volume car brands, battery producers, luxury marques and intelligent mobility solution providers. Cars made in China accounted for 6% of sales in the EU in the first half of the year. This was up from 5% in the first half of 2024, according to ACEA. Some of this share is the result of European brands manufacturing in the country, such as Cupra. However, China’s automotive expansion into Europe is undeniable. Marques including BYD, Xpeng and Hongqi have recently announced production plans, research centres or regional hubs in Europe. So, how are these companies entering the continent? What are the main challenges? Additionally, how important are events like IAA Mobility in increasing consumer awareness? High-volume Chinese brand Between January and July, Xpeng sold 234,374 electric vehicles (EVs) across the world, according to data from EV Volumes. While the majority were delivered in China, 4.2% were sold in Europe. Autovista24 asked Xpeng G9 product manager Chloe Ding how the brand plans to increase its sales in the region. Source: Xpeng ‘Of course, every company wants to give a very big sales volume in the European market, that is no doubt. For our products, we actually said, we are more concerned about how we choose to satisfy our users, because if we cannot satisfy them, we cannot be eager for big sales,’ Ding explained. ‘Sales is just a number target. Our target is in the product itself and how to make it better.’ She highlighted how Xpeng can learn something from Kia and Hyundai. The two non-European brands have created a foothold in the market. Ding then acknowledged how over-the-air updates and aftersales services are vital to customer satisfaction and trust. Dealer network importance ‘We have a plan for how to make our network in Europe bigger. There is no doubt that we would ask for more dealers to join our network,’ Ding outlined. ‘Also, we would provide aftersales services. We want to hear from our users, what they say we can improve, and what help they need. Most of our product details come from when we hear from our users.’ Christoph Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group, recently highlighted the differences in consumer habits between Europe and China. In Cracking the code: Chinese EV brands entering Europe, he recognised the importance of establishing a dealership network. ‘A few brands started with flagship stores, big stores in major European cities. This approach does not work in Europe; it works in China.’ With longer working weeks in China, consumers are more likely to buy a car in a mall on a day off. ‘Europeans, they want to buy cars at dealers. It is also important to have a strong dealer network for aftersales. So do not only think about sales, also think about aftersales,’ he added. Chinese brands' market positioning One major challenge for Chinese brands entering Europe is deciding how to position themselves. Some carmakers may focus on their cost-to-quality ratio, technology features, or luxury status. So, where does Xpeng sit? Source: Xpeng ‘We cannot have the same level of luxury brands like Audi and BMW. So, this car may be focused on the mass or mainstream market. But we believe that one day we will have many more customers, and our reputation will be established. So, one day we may have cars which will be seen as luxury,’ Xpeng P7+ product manager Eva Han told Autovista24. Attracting more customers can be achieved by appealing to different demographics and, in turn, different vehicle segments. ‘We have a rich car line for the Xpeng brand. In China, we have three different platforms, which run from high to low. Because the European market is one of the biggest markets worldwide, we will add more and more cars,’ commented Han. ‘The P7+ will be launched on the European markets in February 2026. This car only offers a two-wheel drive for the Chinese market. But, for the European market, we will add four-wheel drive,’ she stated. Chinese supplier growth Understanding the differences between Chinese and European consumer preferences is not only vital for carmakers but also for automotive suppliers and mobility solution providers. One such company is Desay SV. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsqbZEVbRkQ The company presented many of its products at IAA Mobility. This included an AI-powered intelligent cabin platform, display solutions and full-stack advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) technologies. ‘I think the average age of users of vehicles in China is younger than in Europe. So, I think the Chinese consumers are more used to the smartphone-like digitalisation, and the digitalised features of the vehicles,’ head of Desay SV Europe Yang Yong told Autovista24. ‘European customers' demands are, to my understanding, more diversified, because of a longer automotive culture and history, and the long-lasting culture of horsepower, engine performance, braking and suspension.’ ‘So, I guess these are still more important to the European customers. But I believe digitalisation and intelligence will still be welcomed,’ Yong noted. These differences can mean that products are adapted for different regions. For example, in China, settings and vehicle information are largely accessed on the display. But Yong highlighted that users still want to have some mechanical buttons in Europe. Localising production The company recently celebrated the structural completion of its factory in Spain, joining other Chinese companies which have built foundations in Europe. Source: Desay SV ‘I think the requirement for localised production started from the COVID-19 period. Every OEM was talking about supply chain security, to make sure that if something happens in some regions, you will continue production in other regions,’ said Yong ‘For us, it is very important to show the customer and the people that we are very committed here, we are not a short-term business. We really want to be part of the industry and the ecosystem that we want to develop together,’ he added. The ‘China speed’ advantage One of the biggest advantages that Chinese companies can use to aid their European growth is fast development speeds. During Autovista Group’s recent webinar, Ruhland compared the BEV development speed in different regions, when the platform is already completed. ‘Europeans and Japanese need the longest, between 42 and 60 months. The US can do it a bit quicker, and Koreans can do it within three or four years. But Chinese OEMs can do it between 18 and 24 months. 18 months is now more or less the average,’ he said. Yong also highlighted this development speed when talking about Desay SV’s cabin display solutions. ‘I think everybody right now is talking about the so-called China speed, right? In this market, we have to cater to the ever-evolving requests from users and customers. We have to implement all these new requirements the quickest, with the best quality and cost, so that we can meet the requirements of the customers,’ he outlined. Can Chinese brands become memorable? One hurdle Chinese carmakers face is building a memorable brand. However, many marques are entering Europe using number-based naming conventions. This includes Avatr, a premium EV brand owned by Chinese OEM Changan. So, can they still stand out? ‘It is a tricky question. It can polarise opinion. In my opinion, Avatr is the brand, and it should be the bigger name and needs to be remembered,’ Avatr advanced senior exterior designer Pedro Ruperto Mallosto das Chagas told Autovista24 at IAA Mobility. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCbzFmbWMu4 ‘All the cars are part of a family that needs to be consistent. The numbers are more like a quote to define the Avatr products in the range. So, the brand is more important than each specific car,’ he stated. Ruhland highlighted that unique selling points (USPs) can be a vital factor in building brand awareness. ‘Every Chinese OEM that wants to be successful in Europe needs to answer the question “why should a European car buyer that can already pick among 40 existing European brands, why should they buy a Chinese car?” If this European car buyer goes for a Chinese car, why then should they pick your brand?’ he asked. ‘The brand needs to have a core USP that is easy to remember and easy to communicate. I always recommend looking at how Hyundai and Kia did it 20 years ago when they started their very successful journey in Europe. ‘They came up with very long warranties,’ Ruhland said. ‘This could be a strong USP for a Chinese brand. Imagine a Chinese brand would say “our cars have a 10-year warranty, including battery.”’ ‘This would be a very strong message. This would boost residual values, and could really help create awareness,’ he commented. Designed to stand out One way to create a USP is through design. With a strong and consistent design language, customers can easily recognise a brand and its models. Source: Tom Hooker, Autovista24 ‘I think colour, material and finish (CMF) design is the big difference compared to other Chinese brands. We really lead the design with CMF; it is not just applied afterwards. When you look at the car, you can easily remember the design and intention,’ Avatr senior CMF designer Maud Balmisse told Autovista24. Chagas added that through the front fascia and light signature present on Avatr models, they are recognisable in China. The latter can be used as a clear way to distinguish your brand from others. ‘Light signatures are increasingly recognised or used in some respects. They are perhaps the most easily identifiable singular thing, but I would not say that they are necessarily the most important,’ Car Design Research director Sam Livingstone told Autovista24.
roads and buildings in Poland

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Used-car market continues to struggle in Poland

While the used-car market in Poland faces continued supply pressures, the new-car market has remained stable so far in 2025. Marcin Kardas, head of valuations at Eurotax Poland, analyses the figures with Autovista24 web editor James Roberts. So far in 2025, Poland’s used-vehicle market has seen struggles spanning both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs). A large supply of used models and significant discounting continues to put pressure on market values. In the used-car sector, hybrid vehicles have seen the strongest residual values (RVs), whilst battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) saw the biggest declines. In contrast, Poland’s new-car market has remained stable over the first three months of the year. By the end of March, 138,696 units were registered in the country, an increase of 2.5% from 2024, according to data from industry authority PZPM. Notably, the Polish new-car market has seen an increase in Chinese brands debuting. As well as this, the sector has not been adversely impacted by looming EU emissions regulations. However, potential shifts in policy, coupled with recently announced US tariffs, could cause disruption as the year progresses. Continued used-car struggles The used-car market continues to see a decline in values that follow a longer trend. Discounts on new prices, plus a large supply of used vehicles, continues to put pressure on market values. Coupled with this, the beginning of the year usually signals a period of high volatility. The steady decline of values in Poland, which has continued since the beginning of 2024, is one of the higher among the largest markets in Europe. Demand for used cars is currently limited. Within the Polish used-car market, vehicles aged between 31 and 90 months saw the largest drops in value. However, the prices of the youngest cars, limited in availability due to the post-COVID-19 supply constraints, and the oldest, most affordable cars on the market, are gradually stabilising. Hybrid vehicles emerged as the most resilient used powertrain, losing the least value. Alternatively BEVs saw the greatest rate of depreciation. This continues a trend witnessed throughout 2024. It is notable that the gap between the asking price and the final sale price is particularly wide for BEVs. This is largely due to low demand and a widespread lack of confidence in these vehicles on the used-car market. As a result, the resale value of BEVs remains uncompetitive compared to internal combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles, which in turn hampers the growth of BEV sales. Historically, BEVs tend to depreciate more quickly than their ICE counterparts. While the limited availability and small sample size contribute to high variability in the data, the trend of higher depreciation is clearly visible in listings. Although manufacturers are pushed to produce and sell BEVs due to Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) regulations, the used car market has yet to fully embrace this powertrain, further reinforcing their low RVs. New-car market stable for now For the time being, the Polish new-car market has not seen any significant impact from the CAFÉ standard. This EU-enforced regulation sets a CO2 emissions to a limit of 93.6g/km across a carmaker’s fleet. Other European markets, such as Hungary, are anticipating price rises later in 2025 as a result. ICE-powered cars remain available without restrictions in Poland. With the recently-announced transitional three-year period to meet the emission targets, importers and dealers will gain time to phase in BEVs. Meanwhile, more Chinese brands continue to appear in the Polish new-car market. These vehicles cover most segments, spanning a variety of powertrains including ICE. Adoption of Chinese models has been unexpectedly strong so far, especially among private users. This trend could be attributed to published price lists not showing the effects of the protective duties introduced last year, making these vehicles attractive to consumers. Fleets are only just beginning to show interest in these new Chinese brands. One unknown that could impact the market is the implementation of US tariffs. With production spread globally, this could pose a problem for European manufacturers. In Poland, potential exposure to increased logistical costs and reduced sales could affect new vehicle sales. Used van market under pressure New van registrations in the Polish market grew in the first quarter of 2025. This amounted to 16,127 units, a minimal increase of 1% year-on-year, according to data from PZPM. In contrast to the relative stability in the new van market, used vans are currently selling at a slow pace. At the beginning of the year, an increased decline in value can be observed in every segment of the market, from light to heavy vehicles. Models older than five years are also falling in value. This is indicative of a growing general problem with demand for close transportation and the adverse economic climate. Compared to the largest markets in Europe, Poland currently has the largest decline in the value of vans. Poland’s truck crisis continues The truck market continues to experience significant problems, with marked decline entering a third year. The sector is suffering from a widespread lack of interest in used vehicles, compounded by an elevated quarterly decline in the value of used trucks. An increased interest in eight-to 10-year-old tractors from Arabic countries has had little positive effect on the wider market picture. However, this is a normal situation at the beginning of the year. It is therefore difficult to judge whether this marks the beginning of a greater depreciation in the following months motivated by minimal demand. The market is currently facing a shortage of attractive used vehicles. However it is important to recognise that trucks purchased during the early phase of the pandemic, when new vehicle sales were heavily restricted, are only now beginning to re-enter circulation. This creates a unique dynamic of subdued demand on one side, and a limited supply of quality used stock on the other. The key to reversing this trend likely lies in an economic recovery in Germany, Poland’s primary export destination, and a bellwether for regional transport demand. Meanwhile, distribution trucks have seen a sharp and sustained drop in value. New vehicle sales data offers limited insights. This is due to the segment's relatively small share in overall truck sales. However, the steep depreciation of used vehicles strongly suggests a broader slowdown in local transport activity. Sales of new trucks are following the same trend. From the beginning of 2025 to the end of February, only 4,461 trucks were registered in Poland, a year-on-year drop of as much as 15.9%. This is comparative to a poor result at the start of 2024.
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The Automotive Update: Europe’s leading BEV market, emissions pooling and CES 2025

Early January 2025 has seen a flurry of major automotive news stories, from emissions pooling to CES. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker discusses the week’s biggest headlines. Which European market sold the most battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024? The UK reconfirms its phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. Carmakers are pooling their emissions figures to navigate CO2 targets. CES 2025 featured some important new automotive technology. Which model announcements made waves this week? Xpeng and Volkswagen announce a new joint charging network in China. Rolls Royce confirms the expansion of a UK production facility. Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. The BEV battle The 2024 registration results for Germany and the UK have been released. The UK recorded growth across the year while deliveries in Germany declined. This drop was largely due to a slump in the BEV sector, which fell by 27.4%. This meant the country lost its title as Europe’s best-selling BEV market. The UK took the mantle instead, thanks to a 56.8% BEV surge in December. Meanwhile, the UK government confirmed it will bring the sales ban on new petrol and diesel models back to 2030. This deadline has changed on multiple occasions over the past few years. It was first announced in 2017, with a target date of 2040. In 2020 this was brought forward to 2030, before its push back to 2035, which was confirmed in 2023. Carmakers are ‘pooling’ CO2 emissions with Tesla and Polestar to meet the EU’s 2025 targets. This means manufacturers with lower electric vehicle (EV) sales can buy emissions credits from other brands that are comfortably meeting targets. Stellantis, Ford, Toyota and Mazda are set to pool with BEV manufacturer Tesla. Meanwhile, Polestar, Volvo Cars, Mercedes-Benz and Smart will pool their emissions together. CES 2025 and new models At CES 2025, Sony Honda Mobility confirmed it is now accepting online reservations for its Afeela model. However, the company is currently only accepting orders from customers in California. Honda presented a world premiere of two prototype models from its 0 Series. BMW also revealed new in-cabin technology to improve the user experience. These systems will appear in new models, including the Neue Klasse, from the end of this year. Elsewhere, Skoda unveiled its new Enyaq on Wednesday. Renault revealed the interior of its Twingo E-Tech prototype at the Brussels Motor Show. BYD also introduced the BYD Atto 2 to its European lineup. Toyota confirmed its new Urban Cruiser will be rolled out in late summer 2025. Genesis took the covers off its redesigned GV60 crossover SUV, with more details expected in the first quarter of this year. Xpeng and Volkswagen (VW) announced plans to jointly build one of the largest super-fast charging networks in China. With a target of over 20,000 charging piles operated by the carmakers across 420 cities, both Xpeng and VW customers will be able to access the services. Rolls Royce revealed expansion plans for its production facility in the UK on Wednesday. More than £300 million (€358 million) will be invested into its Goodwood site. This is the largest financial commitment made to the location since it opened in 2003.

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