Insights

With many European used-car markets observing residual value (RV) declines during August, what comes next? Autovista Group editors plot their expectations with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus. RV developments trended towards stagnation and decline across many European used-car markets during August. On average, the absolute trade value of a 36-month-old car at 36,000km fell month on month in Austria, France, Italy, Switzerland and the UK. The only markets to avoid this fate were Spain and Germany. They saw stagnation at 0% and 0.1% growth, respectively. Compared with August 2024, absolute RVs saw an improved performance, with only Italy, Switzerland, and the UK recording declines. These markets also saw the three lowest levels of year-on-year new-car list price growth. As the cost of a new car increases, more consumers may turn to the used-car market as an alternative. This increase in demand stokes absolute RVs, with more money exchanged for models. However, when presented as a percentage of new-car list price (%RV), values saw a steeper and more consistent decline. Compared with July, values fell across all recorded markets apart from Spain, which saw a marginal increase from 55.8% to 56%. Year on year, %RVs fell across all observed markets. This ranged from a short drop of 1.8 percentage points (pp) in Germany to a 5pp tumble in Switzerland. So, will these year-on-year decreases continue towards the end of 2025, and on into 2026 and 2027? Autovista Group editors outline their regional expectations. Slight RV decline in Austria ‘The sales-volume index (SVI) in Austria rose notably in August, increasing by 7.2% compared to July. However, it still recorded a 2.6% decline year-on-year, indicating lingering market challenges,’ commented Robert Madas, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations. The active-market volume index (AMVI) for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars followed a downward trend. It fell by 3.6% month-on-month and 9.4% compared to August 2024. This suggests a continued contraction in supply within this age bracket. The average time to sell a used car decreased slightly by 0.4 days to 66.8 days. Full hybrids (HEVs) showed a significant improvement, making them the fastest-selling powertrain, taking 56.9 days to sell on average. This was followed by diesel vehicles at 60.2 days, petrol vehicles at 66.4 days, and by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 78.1 days. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) continued to take the longest time to sell at 79.3 days. The %RVs of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km declined slightly to 48.1% in August. This marks a 0.3pp drop from July and a 2.2pp decrease year-on-year. HEVs retained the highest trade value at 52.8%, followed by petrol cars at 50.4%. Then came diesel models with 48.5% and PHEVs with 45.6%. BEVs held the lowest %RV once again, at 38.4%. ‘Looking ahead, %RVs are expected to stabilise gradually until the end of the year,’ Madas said. ‘Forecasts suggest a 0.9% increase by the end of 2025 compared to December 2024, followed by a 0.7% decline in 2026, and a 0.6% decrease in 2027.’ France feels RV fall ‘France saw RVs begin to fall slightly in August. Higher list prices and lower absolute trade rates weighed on value retention,’ highlighted Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group’s senior RV analyst for France. Since the beginning of 2025, average days to sell have remained stable across all powertrains. Compared to August 2024, it now takes less time to sell a used car. The summer usually sees a more active market, especially during June and July, with August being slightly quieter. Absolute petrol RVs increased marginally in the 30 days to 6 August, defying a much larger trend. These vehicles are still in demand on the used-car market, even though smaller new volumes are being sold. Diesel values fell slightly, while stock days were shorter compared with July’s report. The Hyundai Tucson was the fastest-selling model across the entire used-car market, as well as within the diesel and HEV categories. HEVs remain the fastest-selling used powertrain in France. However, the powertrain’s absolute RVs dropped compared to July, as the technology features in more expensive models. However, these cars do not hold their value as well as their more affordable stablemates. More suffering for PHEVs PHEVs have continued to suffer. Used-car buyers are not willing to pay the comparatively higher prices. Now, as the range of these cars grows, list prices have increased across almost all brands. The supply and demand of these models is still imbalanced. Previously, many PHEVs were sold to fleets on the back of fiscal advantages. However, private used-car buyers are not interested in paying a higher price for these models. The SVI for PHEVs dropped by 14.2% month on month and 7.7% year on year. Compared with 12 months ago, the powertrain’s list prices increased by €5,101. However, absolute values remained stable, while %RVs fell by 4.3pp. BEVs continue to see the lowest %RVs at 36.1%, down from last month and last year. Tesla had the two fastest-selling used BEVs with the Model Y and Model 3. These cars are now relatively cheap considering their range and segment. Both the new and used-car markets are suffering from overcrowding. Registrations of new cars will see a push from fiscal incentives for fleets, while internal-combustion engines are penalised. ‘This will mean even more models will hit the used-car market, increasing oversupply,’ Percier explained. ‘Social leasing will only exacerbate this situation further when it is reintroduced in September.’ Germany sees RV stability Following a decline in July, used-car demand in Germany increased significantly in August. The SVI increased by 14% month on month. This indicates a modest recovery in market activity despite a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. The AMVI for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars grew slightly. The metric rose by 2% month on month but still reflects a 6.5% decline from one year prior. The average number of days needed to sell a used car in August was 59.1 days. This was a slight improvement of 0.5 days compared to July, but 1.2 days longer than in August 2024. PHEVs sold the fastest at 56 days, closely followed by HEVs at 56.4 days. Diesel models took slightly longer to sell at 58.8 days, followed by petrol cars at 59.5 days. BEVs took the longest amount of time to leave dealerships at 61.5 days. %RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km remained unchanged from July, with a %RV of 48.3%, down 1.8pp year on year. Petrol cars led the market with a %RV of 49.9%. Then came diesel cars at 49.3% and HEVs at 48.9%, followed by PHEVs at 43.3%. BEVs again retained the lowest level of value at 37%. ‘Although RVs have recently stabilised in Germany, the level is significantly lower than in previous years, and demand remains weak. Therefore, RVs can be expected to remain under pressure,’ stated Madas. By the end of 2025, %RVs are forecast to decrease by 2.7% when compared with December 2024. Pressure will probably ease in 2026, with RVs forecasted to suffer a smaller decline of 1.4%. Less price pressure in Spain Far from slowing down during the summer season, the Spanish new-car market continued to grow in July. Registrations were up 17.1% year on year, translating to a 14.3% increase in the year to date. Aided by the Reinicia Auto + plan, sales of new electric vehicles (EVs), including BEVs and PHEVs, have grown. The powertrain grouping saw registrations increase by 154.9% year on year in July. In the year-to-date, EVs made up 17.4% of Spain’s new-car market. ‘The used-car market also continued to grow, just not to the same extent as the new-car market,’ said Ana Azofra, Autovista Group’s head of valuations and insights, Spain. Year on year, transactions increased by 5.8% in July and 5.2% in the year to date. There was more positive news as a significant number of younger used models changed hands. Sales of models less than 12 months old increased by 16% in July. Meanwhile, those between 12 and 36 months saw transactions climb by 15.7%. This rejuvenation of supply has a positive effect on fleet sustainability. It also benefits the professional domain, which accounts for most of the transactions involving cars of this age. ‘This supply boosts the used-car market,’ Azofra highlighted. With an offer volume 42.3% lower than in August 2024, stock days fell, and prices felt less pressure. So, absolute RVs remained stable, still 2.1% higher than one year ago. A typical used petrol car at 36 months and 60,000km, sold between professionals for an average of €17,728 in August. It was also an encouraging month for diesel vehicles, which still account for over half of all used-car sales. The powertrain’s stock days fell compared with July, and its absolute RVs improved month on month and year on year. Supply slump in Switzerland ‘After a marginal decline in July, used-car demand in Switzerland fell more sharply in August,’ Madas outlined. The SVI dropped by 8.7% compared to July. Yet, year-on-year, the SVI was up by 7.4%. The AMVI declined by 1.6% compared to July, indicating a cooling in used car supply. The supply volume of passenger cars in the 24-to-48-month-old age bracket slumped by 9.3% compared to August 2024. ‘The average RV of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km remained stable at 42.4%, unchanged from July,’ he added. ‘This was also down from the 47.4% recorded in August 2024.’ HEVs retained the most value in August by far at 47%. Then came petrol cars at 43.9%, diesel models at 41.8% and PHEVs at 39.9%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing powertrain in terms of value retention. All-electric cars held only 36% of their original list price after 36 months and 60,000km. The average number of days needed to sell a used car improved in August, falling to 73.5 days. This was 3.7 days faster than July and 5.2 days quicker than one year ago. Diesel cars sold fastest at 70.9 days, followed by petrol models at 71.6 days, HEVs at 76.2 days and BEVs at 76.5 days. Meanwhile, PHEVs needed the most time to sell at 83 days on average. A trend of relatively stable supply and low demand will continue as various uncertainties shroud 2025. Therefore, %RVs are expected to decrease in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 5% compared to December 2024. In 2026, a lower year-on-year drop of 1.5% is expected. RV drop recorded in the UK According to August’s Monthly Market Dashboard, the average absolute RV for a 36-month-old car in the UK dipped slightly to £15,187. This was down 1.8% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year. ‘%RVs also declined to 48%, reflecting a 2.4pp drop compared to August 2024,’ stated Jayson Whittington, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations, UK. ‘Conversely, the average list price rose to £31,652, representing a 4.3% increase year-on-year.’ Market activity showed positive momentum, with the SVI indicating that 10.6% more cars were sold in August than in July. Meanwhile, the AMVI displayed a 4% uptick in the number of cars advertised by dealers. Interestingly, 26.7% more cars were available compared to August 2024. Cars sold at a faster rate in August, with average days to sell falling to 35.9 days, 1.4 days faster than in July. This was perhaps due to the increased level of stock on offer, with consumers gaining access to a wider range of cars. All fuel types benefited from this faster sales rate. BEVs led the way, selling 4.1 days faster than in July, at an impressive 33.7 days. ‘Overall, it appears that retail activity shows resilience. Dealers will be pleased that stock availability is reasonably positive. Although RVs declined by a modest amount, there is plenty to be optimistic about as the end of summer approaches,’ concluded Whittington.

Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) continued to see the lowest value retention across Europe in February. Experts from Autovista Group analyse the value retention trends with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus. Compared with February 2024, Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK all saw residual values (RVs) drop all last month. RVs presented as a percentage of original list price (%RV) are undergoing normalisation following exceptional growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. When demand drags behind persistent supply levels, RVs will continue to come under pressure. However, this trend of falling %RVs can be expected to even out in the next couple of years. Value descent for BEVs One of the most pressing issues facing the automotive market is the performance of BEVs. The powertrain’s %RVs continue to trail behind the wider market average in all seven of Autovista Groups’ observed markets. This poor value performance is the result of compounded market effects on all-electric cars. Firstly, BEVs are still developing at pace, with improved ranges and enhanced technological capabilities. This is making older used models age more quickly as they appear comparatively far less capable. New brands are also entering Europe, offering advanced all-electric vehicles with lower price tags. In turn, this is making used models age more quickly as they become a worse value-for-money proposition. Carmakers in Europe are rushing to meet CO2 targets as well. Where the new-car market sees flagging demand in the absence of incentives, some brands will end up discounting BEV stock. This will only work to erode the value of models already in the market. Stock days increase in Austria Following a decrease in December and January, Austria’s sales-volume index (SVI) increased significantly in February. The number of observed sales increased by a healthy 54.1% compared to the previous month. However, the SVI indicated a slight year-on-year decline of 4.6%. Meanwhile, the active-market volume index (AMVI) of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars remained relatively stable in February compared to January. However, the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket slumped by 7.6% compared to the previous year. ‘At 74.2 days, the average amount of time needed to sell a used car increased significantly in February. On average, this was 4.6 days slower than in January,’ explained Robert Madas, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations. Diesel vehicles continued to be the fastest-selling powertrain, averaging 68.2 stock days last month. This was followed by petrol vehicles at 76.1 days, full hybrids (HEVs) at 78.9 days and BEVs at 80.4 days. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) took the longest amount of time to sell at 82.2 days. On average across the market, %RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km increased to 48.8% in February. This was a 0.5 percentage point (pp) increase compared to January but a 3.4pp decrease year-on-year. HEVs retained the greatest amount of trade value in January at 52.5%, followed by petrol cars at 50.6%. Then came diesel models with 48.7% and PHEVs with 46.1%. BEVs again retained the lowest amount of value, at 43.9%, but with an improving trend up 2.3pp compared to the previous month. %RVs are expected to decrease in the coming years but at a slower pace. This is due to weakening demand and unwavering supply. By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 1.5%. In 2026, a slight year-on-year drop of 1.1% is expected. Value stability in France ‘RVs remained stable in France during February. Some powertrains saw a slight increase compared with January when a drop occurred. However, values remained stable compared with December 2024,’ outlined Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group’s senior RV analyst for France. Petrol-powered cars saw %RVs fall in February. Yet, list prices and absolute RVs increased compared with January. The petrol vehicle market proved quite stable until December last year. However, values remained strong overall. After a drop in January, diesel-powered cars returned to %RV levels last recorded in December. There is still demand for the fuel type on the used-car market. Despite this, there are smaller volumes and model ranges on offer compared to previous years. Diesel cars are among the fastest-selling powertrains, evidencing how much demand they are in. The absolute value of HEVs saw a small decline in February following January’s drop. However, this allowed the technology to record comparatively faster selling times. HEVs are still appreciated in France, so %RVs have remained stable overall. The powertrain is currently the best compromise between pure internal-combustion engines and BEVs. A major bonus is that there is no need to plug the car in. Additionally, some HEVs are becoming more affordable. PHEVs slow to sell PHEVs were the second slowest-selling powertrain in France during February as oversupply continued. However, the introduction of newer models has helped keep RVs roughly stable. While values did increase compared with January, figures have only returned to the levels recorded in December. List prices on the new-car market remain high, explaining the powertrain’s larger value loss. BEVs spent the second-longest amount of time in stock but also recorded the lowest RVs. Values did fall considerably in previous months, but January and February saw marginal increases. The technology appears to be stagnating, as brands are pushed by governments to sell an increasing number of new BEVs. This means the used-car market is becoming crowded with models, but too few buyers. While Tesla enjoyed some of the fastest selling times on the used-car market, other brands struggled to find customers. As of December 2023, BEV purchase incentives became dependent on lifetime carbon emissions. This meant some brands and models were no longer eligible. Therefore, used models are still too expensive, causing prices to drop month after month. Where demand does not meet supply, the market sees a strong RV drop and lower prices. Overall, small cars are the fastest sellers, including the affordable Toyota Aygo and Dacia Duster. Demand struggles against supply in Germany Following a significant decrease in January, Germany’s SVI showed a steep increase in February. Month on month, this metric was up by 53.1%. However, this was a 14.3% decrease year-on-year. Meanwhile, the AMVI of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars remained stable compared to January. There was only a slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket dropped by 24.1% compared to the previous year. The average number of days needed to sell a used car increased to 64 days in February. PHEVs sold the fastest at 56.2 days, followed by BEVs at 59.3 days. Then came diesel after 60.7 days, HEVs after 68.6 days and petrol cars after 68.7 days. %RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km remained stable in February. On average, models held on to 47.7% of their original list price in Germany during the month. Petrol models led the market with a %RV of 49.5%. Then came HEVs and diesel cars both at 48.9%, followed by PHEVs at 44.2%. BEVs retained the smallest amount of value at 37%. ‘As demand remains weak and supply persists, RVs can be expected to come under even more pressure,’ Madas said. ‘In 2025, %RVs are forecast to decrease, down 2.6% when compared with December 2024. Pressure will probably ease in 2026, and RVs will show a declining trend of 1.4%.’ Value decline in Italy The average %RV of three-year-old cars fell in Italy last month. Levels dropped to 49.6% in February from 50.2% in January. ‘This progressive decline shows no sign of stopping, with %RVs now a way off the 54.2% recorded in February 2024,’ highlighted Marco Pasquetti, Autovista Group’s head of valuations for Italy. This is due to an increasingly marked difference between continually falling absolute RVs and ever-growing list prices. The former was down 4.2% year on year, while the latter was up 4.8%. Sales volumes recorded on major online marketplaces were also down 14.2% year-on-year. There were no major surprises in powertrain trends established over recent months. Petrol and diesel-powered models continue to sit at the heart of the Italian used-car market. This means their declining %RVs are in line with the wider market’s declining trend. Meanwhile, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and HEVs performed slightly better. However, they also saw %RVs fall compared with February 2024. The Italian government decided not to renew EV incentives for 2025. Despite this, BEVs and PHEVs continued to lose value much faster than other powertrains. All-electric cars saw %RVs drop from 37% 12 months ago to 31.6%. Meanwhile, PHEVs fell from 52.3% to 44.7%. Both technologies are also seeing very high stock times. Looking at online marketplaces, BEVs needed 84.5 days to sell on average, while PHEVs needed 80.3 days. This is far higher than the market average of 63.8 days. Favourable economic conditions in Spain ‘Spain’s automotive market continued to see a positive streak in February. New-car sales kept growing, particularly in the private channel,’ said Ana Azofra, Autovista Group’s head of valuations and insights, Spain. A major contributor to this trend was the favourable economic conditions, as well as the interest rate cut. This will make financing more affordable, meaning a sales boost can be expected in the coming months. The MOVES plan, which incentivises BEV and PHEV sales, was in limbo for several weeks. However, the government expects the scheme to be approved soon, with the potential for retroactive application. This prevented BEVs and PHEVs from stalling, with electric vehicles (EVs) taking a 14.2% market share during January. However, this is still a far cry from other European markets. Marginal EV share While their presence has increased compared to previous years, EVs still account for a marginal share of Spain’s used-car market. For example, BEVs barely made up 1% of the transactions at the start of this year. However, this is continuing to support the stability of used-vehicle prices. However, Autovista Group’s key market indicators point towards a negative trend, especially the average turnover rate. Average days in stock have continued to increase for BEVs, reaching just shy of 120 days. This was nearly double the amount of time needed to sell a HEV. Petrol and diesel models also spent fewer days in stock on average, at 75.7 and 78.4 days respectively. For this reason, 2025’s negative residual value forecast for BEVs remains unchanged. The outlook is much better for other powertrains, including PHEVs. The technology continues to gain popularity, becoming a strong transition option in Spain. Last month, PHEVs took less time to sell compared to January. A large portion of the accumulated stock from 2024 has already been cleared. This shift toward plug-in hybrids is also slightly reducing the prominence of full hybrids. The powertrain is now starting to plateau after a year of significant increases in average transaction prices. Nevertheless, HEVs continued to lead turnover rankings in February. The Toyota C-HR was on top again, followed by the DS DS7 and the Toyota Corolla. Switzerland’s value slope Following a decrease in December and January, the SVI in Switzerland increased significantly in February. The number of observed sales increased by a sizeable 36% compared to the previous month. Year-on-year the SVI was up by 2.6%. Meanwhile, the AMVI of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars remained rather stable in February compared to January. However, the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket slumped by 10.2% compared to the previous year. Influenced by constant supply, RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km dropped last month. Presented as a percentage of retained new list price, values fell to 44.7% in February from 45.9% in January. However, the year-on-year drop was more severe, down 3.4pp from the values recorded 12 months ago. HEVs retained the most value in January by far at 49.5%. Then came petrol cars (46%), diesel models (43.2%) and PHEVs with 42.1%. BEVs were once again the worst-performing powertrain. All-electric cars retained only 39.4% of their original list price after three years and 60,000km. ‘February saw two-to-four-year-old passenger cars sell slightly quicker than in January. On average, vehicles spent 81.2 days in stock,’ Madas pointed out. Diesel cars sold fastest at 73.8 days, followed by petrol models at 79.3 days and HEVs at 79.8 days. PHEVs took 86.7 days, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 14.4 days. Meanwhile, BEVs needed the most time to sell at 96.8 days on average. A trend of relatively stable supply and low demand will continue as various uncertainties shroud 2025. Therefore, %RVs are expected to decrease in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 3%. In 2026, a slight year-on-year drop of 1.5% is expected. UK sees value dip ‘The UK saw the average RV of a three-year-old car fall in February. List price retention hit 51.9%, down 0.8pp month on month,’ highlighted Jayson Whittington, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations, UK. All powertrains saw values decline month on month except for HEVs, which saw %RVs increase by 0.7pp to 56.3%. There were no major improvements for PHEVs, with values dropping by 1.6pp. Diesel fell by 1pp and petrol decreased by 0.8pp. Battery-electric vehicles remained broadly stable, down 0.1pp. As expected, retail activity in the preceding 30 days to 12 February was significantly stronger than over the festive period. According to the SVI, sales increased by 35.6% month on month. Consequently, the AMVI highlighted a fall in available stock, down by 11.4%. It took 45.1 days on average for a dealer to sell a car to a retail customer, in line with January’s report. It is perhaps unexpected for stock days to remain level in a month when the sales rate increased. However, February’s abnormality occurred because stock remained unsold over the festive period. BEVs were the fastest-selling powertrain at 36.9 days on average. This was eight days quicker than the market’s average and underlines how popular used BEVs have become. That said, RVs remain sensitive to even the smallest increases in volume. The wholesale market was reasonably buoyant throughout February. There was a noticeable reduction in supply, which is common in the run-up to the plate change in March. Dealers will be hoping that the month provides a big increase in fresh stock. It will be interesting to see whether this has any effect on auction hammer prices.